Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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395 FXUS64 KLIX 042333 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 633 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A strong upper level ridge remains draped across the north central Gulf Coast late this week and into the upcoming weekend. This will keep the conditions rather hot. At the surface weak low level onshore flow will continue to help draw rich gulf moisture into the region keeping the short term very similar to the last several days with heat and humidity being the primary story. Although, with mid level moistening (in fact a PWAT of nearly 2.6" a record) will help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms. Obviously, with such high precipitable waters, rainfall rates will be highly efficent so will need to monitor for localized flooding both this afternoon and Friday afternoon, especially the flood favored low-lying and poor drainage areas. Again, the heat will be a continuing issue. Although with rain and convection sending out lots of outflow boundaries and an early initiation, this will mitigate a bit. However, if coverage is a bit more limited in terms of convection and/or a later start, it will not take much to get heat index values to dangerous levels once again. Issued a heat advisory for the MS Gulf Coast and around the more urban areas. It`s very much borderline, but with a continuation of the Independence Day holiday and plenty of outdoor activities, decided to lean a bit more toward needing the advisory than otherwise. (Frye) && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Going into the weekend our area will remain under the influence of the upper level high that will begin to decrease in strength and as upper level weakness develops over the Red River Valley upstream. This will help suppress the ridge more to the east of our region. A weak surface boundary will move southward as well keeping rain chances going across the region at least diurnally driven in nature. As for Hurricane Beryl, the system looks to continue to move generally west northwest over the western Caribbean and eventually emerging over the Bay of Campeche this weekend before reaching its final destination of northeastern Mexico or Deep South Texas. No direct impacts here locally outside a slight increase in swell (see marine section). Ridging looks to remain in place through much of the medium range, however, the weakness across the Red River Valley doesn`t really go anywhere leading to roughly a similar forecast each day through the long term period. Again, diurnally driven convection during the day and continued hot conditions. Although with higher convective coverage, the heat may be mitigated, limiting the need for additional heat headlines. After Beryl makes eventual landfall, our region will fall under a more active southwesterly flow again leading to the thought that the medium range will be somewhat on the wetter or more active side and deep tropical moisture will continue to stream in from the southwest around the western periphery of the Bermuda high across the southwest Atlantic. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Most convection across the area has dissipated over the last hour, but a cluster of storms along the Mississippi River south of New Orleans will necessitate VCTS for the next couple hours at KNEW and KMSY. Could see some lower conditions, IFR or lower, at KMCB toward sunrise Friday before lifting to MVFR around 14z. Will carry VCSH during the late morning and VCTS during the afternoon Friday, with TEMPO at several locations during the afternoon. Direct impacts likely to be IFR or lower visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Most convection should dissipate toward sunset Friday. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Generally light onshore flow is expected going into the upcoming weekend. Waves may gradually increase as a swell develops in response to Hurricane Beryl moving into the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico and eventually into Tamaulipas Mexico or Deep South Texas/Rio Grande Valley. Outside of the increase in wave heights and swell, locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around diurnally driven convection...mostly late nights or during the early morning hours. (Frye) && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 75 91 73 88 / 20 80 50 60 BTR 80 95 78 92 / 20 70 40 60 ASD 78 93 78 92 / 20 70 40 70 MSY 80 93 80 92 / 20 70 30 70 GPT 77 91 77 91 / 30 70 40 60 PQL 77 93 77 94 / 30 70 40 60 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039- 046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ048-056>060- 064-065-076>090. GM...None. MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077- 083>088. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ083>088. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RDF LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...RW MARINE...RDF