Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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190 FXUS64 KLCH 110906 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 406 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Calm winds have allowed for some patchy, light fog to develop across the region over the last couple of hours where dewpoint depressions have narrowed. Expect this fog to remain generally at or above 4 SM visibility and should be quick to dissipate after sunrise. A weak, quasistationary boundary remains draped across the region early this morning although it`s not as well delineated compared to this time yesterday. This, combined with a broad upper level trof extending from the Great Lakes to the gulf coast, will yield higher than typical afternoon convective coverage. Guidance has been in good agreement on a gradual lifting of this boundary through the day allowing scattered afternoon convection to advance to around the Hwy 190 corridor with a sharp PoP gradient North of the boundary. A surface gradient will be largely nonexistent over the next few days. Interactions from colliding outflow boundaries will initialize new storms and offer the potential for tropical funnel clouds. By Friday, the boundary will have largely washed out entirely allowing low level moisture to surge across central Louisiana. Lingering effects of the departing upper low will maintain above normal PoPs area wide for afternoon convection. With the demise of the boundary and loss of upper level support, PoPS Saturday afternoon will be exclusively diurnally driven and more in line with mid summer afternoon coverage. Isolated to scattered, landbreeze induced, nocturnal thunderstorms will be a nightly occurrence through the weekend. Patchy, light fog will remain possible each night where precipitation occurs and skies clear. Jones && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Little change in thinking from yesterday morning regarding the long term forecast. Ridging, albeit weak, is expected to prevail at the surface and aloft. This will yield a typical summertime diurnal seabreeze/nocturnal landbreeze circulation for areas near the coast, with an otherwise light onshore flow to persist. Moisture will remain adequate to support at least some scattered mainly afternoon showers and storms each day, mainly across southern LA, with more isolated activity further west across SE TX. With PWATs progged to range from roughly 1.8 to 2.2 inches, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in a few storms. Convection is expected to taper off after sunset and re-form over the nearshore waters by late night/early morning. Daytime temperatures are expected to reach the lower to middle 90s over the southern zones, and the middle to upper 90s across the northern zones. Heat advisories will likely be needed, at least for parts of the area, as maximum apparent temperatures could peak between 108 and 112 degrees. 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 No changes since the previous forecast. VFR CIGS/VIS and light winds will prevail through the period, except near/within any afternoon thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through the weekend, with the greatest coverage typically overnight into the morning each day. A light onshore flow will prevail through early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 94 73 94 74 / 10 0 40 0 LCH 90 76 90 76 / 60 20 70 20 LFT 91 77 93 78 / 70 10 70 10 BPT 90 76 91 76 / 60 30 60 20 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...66