918
FXUS64 KLCH 111939
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
239 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A stalled boundary stretches across the region, providing a focal
point for convection to fire along. This feature, along with a
broad upper-level trough, will keep showers and thunderstorms
scattered throughout today and into the evening. Throughout the
day, the boundary will meander north while breaking apart. This
means we will see convection slowly spread north until sunset.
After sunset, conditions will be calm with clear skies and light
winds.

By Friday, the boundary will have faded away, and our weather
pattern will switch into a much more standard summer-type pattern.
Each day, isolated or scattered showers will form in the
afternoon, then fade away after sunset. High pressure will start
to build in the Gulf of Mexico, with ensemble models showing
heights building into the 594 dm range. While this will be a
significant ridge, the center will remain offshore. Going into the
weekend, the high will slowly move to the east, allowing for
moisture to surge inland. As of now, models keep us just below
heat advisory levels, but models have shown a cool bias the past
few days, so I can`t rule out that a heat advisory will be
needed.

Temperatures will be in the mid 90s, with dew points in the mid
70s. Heat index values look to max out in the low triple digits
but could reach advisory levels in isolated spots.&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The long term forecast keeps a summer time pattern going through
the middle of next week. With diurnal heating and boundaries
creating pop-up showers and thunderstorms. High pressure in the
gulf will push moisture into the region with PWATs expected to
remain well over 1.5 inches. High pressure aloft will lower the
chances or convection but will not be enough to stop formation
entirely.

The main threat this week will be high temperatures with highs in
the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will push into the heat
advisory levels with maximum values near 108 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present across the region
due to a stationary boundary that is draped across southern
Louisiana. VCTS weather is expected across each of the TAF sites
with the exception of AEX. Winds will be light and variable except
for chaotic outflows from thunderstorms. CIG is scattered around
3000-6000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Saturday, with the greatest coverage typically overnight
into the morning each day. A light onshore flow will prevail
through early next week. Sea conditions will be on the calmer side
with waves between 1 and 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  93  74  95 /   0  40  10  40
LCH  75  89  76  92 /  30  70  10  50
LFT  77  92  77  95 /  20  70  10  50
BPT  75  91  76  92 /  40  70  10  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...14