963
FXUS64 KLCH 121859
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
159 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Upper-level analysis shows a standard summer time pattern with a
weak trough extending down from the Great Lakes that is sandwiched
between high pressure in the desert southwest and high pressure
across the east coast. Surface high pressure located in the
eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to push moisture inland. Keeping
dew points in the mid 70s through the weekend. The combination of
heat and humidity will push our apparent temperatures into the
triple digits. With central Louisiana and the Acadiana region
suffering the worst combination of high temps and dew points.
While we are just below heat advisory criteria they could still be
possible tomorrow and are likely on Sunday.

Rain chances will be diurnally driven with showers and
thunderstorms forming along boundaries each afternoon and fading
away in the evening. Each afternoon we will see PoPs around the 40
to 60 percent range with a small chance that isolated
thunderstorms might reach severe criteria due to winds. DCAPE
values remain in the 500 range with lapse rates over 6.5
degrees/km, thats just enough to produce damaging downdrafts.
Overall we are looking at a typical summer time pattern through
the start of the week.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Next week will begin with a weak ridge aloft in place over the local
area. High temperatures are anticipated to be in the low to mid 90s
which may combine with our typical high summer time dewpoints to
push the area to around or over heat advisory criteria (+108
apparent temp). A few showers and storms will be possible in
afternoons, however most convection will be confined to Acadiana.

Toward mid week, a trough will dig south across the eastern half of
the country causing the ridge to erode. Rain chances will increase
for the second half of the week area wide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions will be broken apart by occasional showers and
thunderstorms. During storms lower VIS/CIG will drop conditions
into the MVFR to IFR levels. Winds will be light and variable
through the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A generally calm marine pattern will continue through the weekend
and into next week. Light onshore winds, along with seas of 2-3.
There will be daily chances for thunderstorms, though coverage
will remain isolated. Locally higher waves/winds may occur with
any stronger storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  94  74  93 /  10  50  10  50
LCH  76  91  76  91 /  10  70   0  50
LFT  77  93  78  94 /  10  60   0  60
BPT  76  91  76  92 /  20  70   0  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ029-033-044-
     045-055-152>154-252>254.

TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14