488
FXUS64 KLCH 052150
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
450 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Latest UA analysis and WV imagery shows a large trough across the
central US, while what is now Tropical Storm Beryl transits the
northern end of the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a weak
frontal boundary extends across the southern US from central AR
into N TX. South of this front, hot and humid conditions continue
to affect much of the area, with temperatures (outside of any
convection) into the middle and upper 90s. Dewpoints today have
stayed in the lower to middle 70s, which has produced heat index
readings between 100 and 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect through 7 PM.

The main concern over the coming forecast period will be what
happens with Beryl. The latest forecast from NHC has shifted the
track slightly northward from this morning, with a landfall near
Corpus Christi. Based on this forecast, the greater risks are
expected to stay west of the area, but stronger winds, possibly to
tropical storm force, could impact our outer coastal waters west
of Cameron by late Sunday or early Monday. Additional shifts in
the track forecast will be likely in the coming days and will be
monitored for potential additional impacts to SE TX and possibly
SW LA, but at this time, the main highlights continue to be the
increasing risk for coastal flooding and higher winds/seas over
the coastal waters. The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding
will also become a concern, especially in the early to midweek
timeframe as the system moves inland across TX.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Afternoon convection is expected the diminish this evening with
the loss of daytime heating. The weak front to the north of the
area will migrate slowly south overnight into Saturday, and this
will help focus convection during the day. Copious tropical
moisture remains in place with very high PWAT values from 2.2 to
2.4 inches over the region, and this, along with heating, will
support more widespread rain chances across the area during the
day. With weak steering winds aloft, there is a risk for heavy to
torrential rainfall that could lead to flooding in urban and low
lying areas, especially in areas where cell mergers occur. WPC
has outlined the area in a MRGL risk (Level 1 out of 4) for
excessive rainfall for Saturday.

Rain chances will decrease once again by Saturday night. The
front will begin to lift back to north Saturday night into Sunday
as steering currents on the northern flank of Beryl become more
southerly. By this time, the hurricane will be approaching the
lower TX coast. Convection on Sunday will be a little more
scattered, and PoPs may be a bit overdone as models suggest a
wedge of slightly drier air will spread over the region. Any
convection that does develop will be primarily driven by diurnal
heating along residual mesoscale boundaries.

Temperatures the next couple of days are expected to be a few
degrees "cooler", with highs only reaching the lower 90s. This
should take the edge off the oppressive heat of the past several
days, and no heat advisories are expected as max apparent T values
should stay below 107 degrees.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical moisture will peak at the beginning of the period across
the region as easterly wave works across the central Gulf of Mexico.
Guidance is less bullish on closing off a circulation with this
feature this morning. If it does close off in the SW Gulf, the
northern stream of deep moisture would become less than currently
forecast. As of now PW`s are forecast to get above 2.5 with rain
chances peaking on Tuesday with heavy rainfall possible across the
area, especially the southern half of the area.

Wednesday will continue to see a deep stream of tropical moisture
translating west more into Texas and by Thursday PW`s will drop back
to below 2 inches, however still plenty of moisture for scatter
showers and thunderstorms, with normal summertime diurnal trends
across the coastal water at night and moving inland during the day.

Friday will see the lowest rain chances through the period, however
another deep plume of tropical moisture will be on the way for
Saturday.

In addition to heavy rainfall, coastal flooding will be a concern if
Tuesday and Wednesday if current tide model trends continue a breezy
easterly and southeasterly winds translate across the coastal waters
along with longer wave period swells developing in those wind
conditions.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Generally VFR conditions to prevail through the period with SCT
daytime CU sometimes becoming BKN with bases AOA 3500 FT.
Widely scattered to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing early this
afternoon around the area, but potential at any particular airport
warrants no more than VC mention. The exception is KLCH where an
outflow boundary apparent on radar could promote a shower or storm
over the next hour. Convection should diminish an hour or two
after sunset, then redevelop again by late morning Saturday. Winds
will be mostly light and variable through the period.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Convective coverage looks to become more widespread over the
weekend as a weakness develops aloft. Light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow will continue through tomorrow along with
seas around 1-4 feet. Winds and seas will begin to ramp up on
Sunday, especially across the southern zones, with seas increasing
to around 5-8ft by the evening hours and winds around SCA
criteria.

Heading into Monday conditions will deteriorate further with
tropical storm conditions becoming possible mainly across the
southern and western most zones. In addition, periods of heavy
rain and thunderstorms will be possible across all zones, with
higher winds and seas likely near thunderstorms. Winds and seas
will remain elevated into Tues and Wed however, gradual
improvement is anticipated to begin by early Tuesday.

24/17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  90  74  91 /  50  70  20  60
LCH  77  90  77  90 /  30  70  20  60
LFT  78  93  79  93 /  50  60  20  60
BPT  77  93  77  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>029-033-044-
     045-055-152>154-252>254.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-259-260.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...24