Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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424 FXUS64 KLCH 011123 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Currently there is high pressure stretching across the southeast US aloft. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is meandering southward towards Louisiana. As this boundary moves into southwest Louisiana, expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity today. With PWAT values 2.00 to 2.50 inches observed in the area, showers should be relatively efficient with rainfall rates. Some wet downbursts could be possible but should be isolated in nature. Expect some of the same tomorrow and Wednesday as the boundary continues meandering overtop the area. Hot and very hot conditions are anticipated over the coming days. High pressure aloft will allow temps to soar into the mid and upper 90s across the region. Combined with high humidity, Heat Indices from 110 to 114F are expected today and tomorrow. Heat Advisories have been issued today for all areas except right along the Atchafalaya Basin; here, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect due to a concentration of higher dewpoints and thus higher HI values. Tomorrow, a Heat Advisory will be in effect area-wide. If portions of it need to be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning, those updates will come with forecast updates. 11/Calhoun && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The mid/upper-level ridge which is expected to be the prevailing feature aloft through the first half of the new week is progged to begin breaking down/getting shunted ewd by Thursday in response to a digging trof crossing the Rockies. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure is forecast to remain centered to our east, maintaining a srly low- level flow across the region. Despite the lack of a good lift source, the combo of daytime heating with reasonable moisture (forecast soundings indicate mean RH values around 60 percent and PWAT values upwards of 2.0 to 2.1 inches) should lead to scattered diurnal convection for the July 4th holiday, especially over the sern zones where the best moisture is progged. For Friday, heights aloft will continue to lower as the shortwave trof pushes ewd through the Plains. However with forecast soundings showing a little less moisture in place, highest rain chances over Acadiana are expected to lower a little while small rain chances linger over the remainder of the forecast area. Next weekend sees the area fully under the influence of the cntl CONUS trof. With the mid-level flow expected to be more off the Gulf by that time, forecast moisture is progged to tick back upward, leading to slightly higher rain chances to end the forecast period. A side note to watch for...none of the long range models are currently advertising the trof axis digging deep enough to pick up TC Beryl, which by that point is progged to be on a wwd bee line across the far srn Gulf towards a landfall along the Mexican coast. But as we are talking days 6/7 and beyond in the forecast, model solutions could certainly change over the coming days...stay tuned. Forecast highs in the long term continue to run in the lower/mid 90s each day. Peak heat index values generally look to stay below advisory criteria at this time. 25 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Generally VFR conditions are ongoing over the area with some high clouds and isolated ground fog being observed. A weak frontal boundary is moving down towards the region; its weakness seen as some showers have developed offshore. Expect an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity across all terminals today, however, due to high pressure aloft, convection should remain isolated to scattered. Where there are storms, expect lowered ceilings, gusty winds and very heavy downpours. Winds will be fairly light and from the north in accordance with the boundary. Convection will diminish with sundown as conditions improve to VFR once again. Ground fog is likely to develop tonight in areas where there is rainfall today. Confidence in what areas will see fog is low, thus there was no mention of fog in TAFs. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Rain chances will increase over coastal waters starting today as a weak surface boundary moves down into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with elevated winds and seas as hazards near storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 74 99 76 / 40 10 20 0 LCH 94 77 94 79 / 60 20 40 10 LFT 97 79 97 80 / 70 30 50 10 BPT 96 78 97 79 / 50 20 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027-028-030>032-044-073-074-141>143-152-154-241>243- 252>254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044- 045-055-073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ029-033-045-055-153. TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-516-615-616. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11