Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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358 FXUS64 KLCH 012111 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 411 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers and storms developing along greater portions of SETX and parts of SWLA will continue through the early evening hours with a generally SWly direction. Present storm activity aside, the near and short term hazards remain with a Heat Advisory across SETX/SWLA through 7PM CDT this evening. Confidence remains high Tuesday temperatures will be little warmer along with a flux of decent RH. Counties and Parishes have been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning from 11AM to 7PM CDT (Tuesday) for Eastern Tx and central to parishes of LA while also extending SE along the Atchafalaya basin toward the coastal locations along Vermilion Bay. The remainder of coastal SETX counties and southern LA Parishes will remain in a Heat Advisory where conditions remain just shy of consistent excessive heat criteria through the afternoon. Wednesday, a stationary boundary extending along Central LA to the GA/SC coast will begin to lift NE while a weak trough axis follows behind lifting north from the coast to NELA. With sufficient RH and instability in place, opportunities for showers/storms increase through the mid afternoon with the most favorable locations remaining along the Acadiana and Atchafalaya areas. Highs will be tempered a few degrees lower, taking us out of heat headlines, for the time being. That said, outside of showers and storms, heat indices above 100F are not out of the question and appropriate measures should still be taken to mitigate heat exhaustion. POPS will decrease toward the evening hours leaving broad high pressure in place which will continue to broaden eastward and consolidate of the SECONUS / Eastern Seaboard into Thursday morning. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Near the end of the work week we will see the upper level ridge that has remained over the Gulf Coast States start to shift off to the east as a stronger trough makes its way south into the High Plains, then moves across into the Great Lakes Region. A cold front will also move close to the region, however it will not make its way south into the area. With the ridge flattening/weakening a bit, we can look forward to an uptick in rain chances in the afternoon and evening timeframe along with a decrease in temperatures. It should be noted that temperatures will remain above average for the duration of the period, however they will be borderline Heat Advisory criteria at best. Regarding the tropics and the forecast as a whole, confidence still remains low as we get closer to the weekend and beyond that point. The latest model guidance generally show the upper ridge over the southeastern seaboard and extending into parts of the eastern to central Gulf with the aforementioned trough pushing southward as Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche. However, guidance as of the moment keeps it trekking west / northwest into Mexico. Again, and this cannot be stressed enough, confidence in track forecast remains low and this is something that will be closely monitored through this week. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 A line of segmented TSRA and VCTS continues the push south off coastal LA and portions of SETX. Additional VCTS are possible across SETX and SWLA, but to a more isolated capacity. Outside of storms, conditions should trend VFR for most locations as remaining low level clouds should mix out. Overnight, POPS continue to decrease with a few high level cloud decks possible by dawn. Some guidance indicates light ground BR to form across SETX and SWLA with the recent precipitation and much calmer sfc winds. VFR conditions to persist into the early afternoon hours Tuesday 30 && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Rain chances will increase over coastal waters starting today as a weak surface boundary moves down into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with elevated winds and seas as hazards near storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 98 77 96 / 10 20 0 40 LCH 78 95 79 91 / 10 30 0 60 LFT 79 98 81 93 / 40 50 10 80 BPT 78 96 79 93 / 30 20 0 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027-028-030>032- 044-073-074-141>143-152-154-241>243-252>254. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-153-154-253-254. Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ029- 033-045-055-153. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ030>032-073- 074-141>143-152-241>243-252. TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262- 515-516-615-616. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180- 259-260. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ201-261-262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...30