Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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410 FXUS64 KLCH 020432 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1132 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 917 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The last cluster of daytime heating type convection is weakening as it moves from the lower Atchafalaya Basin into the coastal waters. With land areas becoming more stable, not expecting much shower activity for the remainder of the night. However, with a very moist air mass, PWAT on this evening`s sounding from KLCH was over 2.3 inches, can not rule out some nocturnal shower activity developing over the coastal water. However, with mean mid level wind flow from the northeast, any activity that develops over the coastal waters should stay offshore. No significant changes to the forecast at this time. Another hot one on tap for Tuesday. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers and storms developing along greater portions of SETX and parts of SWLA will continue through the early evening hours with a generally SWly direction. Present storm activity aside, the near and short term hazards remain with a Heat Advisory across SETX/SWLA through 7PM CDT this evening. Confidence remains high Tuesday temperatures will be little warmer along with a flux of decent RH. Counties and Parishes have been upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning from 11AM to 7PM CDT (Tuesday) for Eastern Tx and central to parishes of LA while also extending SE along the Atchafalaya basin toward the coastal locations along Vermilion Bay. The remainder of coastal SETX counties and southern LA Parishes will remain in a Heat Advisory where conditions remain just shy of consistent excessive heat criteria through the afternoon. Wednesday, a stationary boundary extending along Central LA to the GA/SC coast will begin to lift NE while a weak trough axis follows behind lifting north from the coast to NELA. With sufficient RH and instability in place, opportunities for showers/storms increase through the mid afternoon with the most favorable locations remaining along the Acadiana and Atchafalaya areas. Highs will be tempered a few degrees lower, taking us out of heat headlines, for the time being. That said, outside of showers and storms, heat indices above 100F are not out of the question and appropriate measures should still be taken to mitigate heat exhaustion. POPS will decrease toward the evening hours leaving broad high pressure in place which will continue to broaden eastward and consolidate of the SECONUS / Eastern Seaboard into Thursday morning. Kowalski/30 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Sunday) Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Near the end of the work week we will see the upper level ridge that has remained over the Gulf Coast States start to shift off to the east as a stronger trough makes its way south into the High Plains, then moves across into the Great Lakes Region. A cold front will also move close to the region, however it will not make its way south into the area. With the ridge flattening/weakening a bit, we can look forward to an uptick in rain chances in the afternoon and evening timeframe along with a decrease in temperatures. It should be noted that temperatures will remain above average for the duration of the period, however they will be borderline Heat Advisory criteria at best. Regarding the tropics and the forecast as a whole, confidence still remains low as we get closer to the weekend and beyond that point. The latest model guidance generally show the upper ridge over the southeastern seaboard and extending into parts of the eastern to central Gulf with the aforementioned trough pushing southward as Beryl moves into the Bay of Campeche. However, guidance as of the moment keeps it trekking west / northwest into Mexico. Again, and this cannot be stressed enough, confidence in track forecast remains low and this is something that will be closely monitored through this week. Stigger/87 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Earlier convection has all diminished and with stable conditions, expect VFR through the night with light and variable winds to go along with high level cloudiness. With daytime, another chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon after 02/19z. Best chance for the convection looks to be near the Atchafalaya Basin and south central Louisiana. Therefore, have PROB30 groups for KARA/KLFT to account for this. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Rain chances will increase over coastal waters starting today as a weak surface boundary moves down into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected with elevated winds and seas as hazards near storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 76 98 77 96 / 10 20 0 40 LCH 78 95 79 91 / 10 30 0 60 LFT 79 98 81 93 / 40 50 10 80 BPT 78 96 79 93 / 30 20 0 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ027>029-033-044-045-055-153-154-253-254. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ030>032-073- 074-141>143-152-241>243-252. TX...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ180- 259-260. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ201-261-262- 515-516-615-616. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...07