318
FXUS64 KLCH 050412
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A rather typical summer day has unfolded across the region on this
Fourth of July, as high pressure continues to break down overhead.
Area radar has been fairly active across south-central LA since
early this morning, while the remainder of the region has seen
little more than a stray shower or two today. As a result of
better cloud cover/precip, temps currently sit in the mid 80s
across lower Acadiana, while elsewhere temps are in the low to
mid 90s. Shower activity will gradually come to an end as we near
00Z this evening, with dry weather expected as we head into
tonight, just in time for any fireworks shows.

Tomorrow, upper ridging weakens further while at the surface a
cold front is progged to slide south across the Ark-La-Tex
through the morning hours, making its way to near CENLA before
stalling. The combination of an increasing weakness aloft, the
approaching boundary, as well as daytime heating will result in
another day of scattered to possibly widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Although this front is not expected to make it into
the CWA tomorrow it will provide additional support for
convection, especially through peak heating hours. It is also
worth noting that guidance has been fairly persistent in keeping
at least some scattered convection overhead beyond sunset
tomorrow, with some activity possibly lingering until midnight.
With better rain chances/cloud cover it`ll still be hot tomorrow,
but heat advisory conditions are not anticipated. Still, highs
will likely top out around the low to mid 90s.

Moving into the weekend, some guidance has been wanting to move
what remains of the cold front into the CWA at least briefly, with
NBM on board as well. This will result in another day of scattered
to widespread convection area-wide, along with highs *only*
topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. So although it doesn`t
look like it`ll be a great start to the weekend for any outdoor
summer activities, it does look like we may see at least a slight
reprieve from the repressive heat. In addition, we will have to
keep an eye on rainfall totals, with WPC outlining the majority of
the region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive
Rainfall both tomorrow and Saturday. Widespread flooding issues
are not a concern however, areas that see heavy downpours several
days in a row could see some localized flooding issues.

17

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

By Sunday morning, tropical cyclone Beryl is expected to be making
its way toward the NE coast of Mexico, with the official track from
NHC remaining consistent on a potential landfall near the mouth of
the Rio Grande early Monday morning. There is still quite a bit of
spread in model guidance, but the NHC forecast has stayed very close
to the mean of the consensus with little variance over the past few
days which lends a little more confidence to recent forecasts. That
said, the track will depend on how much weakening occurs, with the
system dealing with shear over the western Caribbean today and
ultimately the landmass of the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow, and this
will continue to be monitored. Either way, expected impacts to the
local area early next week continue to be increasing seas as swells
from the system propagate toward the NW Gulf of Mexico, along with
elevated winds over the coastal zones as well as minor coastal
flooding.

In the meantime, the area will remain in pattern of daily shower and
thunderstorm chances through the long term period. A weakness aloft
will persist with ridging to the east and a trough over the midwest.
Weak shortwaves translating over the region, along with minimal
capping, copious moisture and lingering mesoscale boundaries will
combine to support at least scattered showers and storms across the
area Sunday and Monday afternoons. A surge of deeper tropical
moisture on the east to northeast flank of Beryl`s remnants will
spread over the area on Tuesday, with showers and storms becoming
widespread. PWATs in excess of 2.3 inches will facilitate the
potential for very heavy rainfall, with area average rainfall
amounts of 1 to 4 inches possible from Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain
chances will begin to trend downward slightly toward the end of the
week as ridging aloft begins to build west along the Gulf coast.

The increase in clouds and showers should temper daytime heat, with
highs close to seasonal normals Sunday and Monday. Better coverage
of showers from Tuesday into midweek should keep daytime temps near
or possibly a little below normal, with highs around 90 each
afternoon.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Clear skies and calm weather will continue through the rest of
the night with VFR conditions. Overnight winds will shift and
become southernly around 5 to 10 knots. After sunrise, convection
will begin to form near the coast with PROB30 for each of the
coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

High pressure aloft will continue to weaken overhead tomorrow,
allowing for another day of diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage looks to again be fairly scattered
tomorrow, but may become more widespread over the weekend as
ridging overhead fully breaks down.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
prevail through the next couple of days. Winds and seas will
begin to increase by Sunday as the pressure gradient begins to
tighten over the coastal region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  77  95  74  91 /  10  70  50  60
LCH  79  93  77  91 /  10  60  30  70
LFT  80  94  78  93 /  10  80  40  70
BPT  79  95  77  94 /  10  40  30  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...14