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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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251 FXUS63 KLBF 092004 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures will range as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the 90s to low 100s Friday through Monday, with the threat for dangerous heat. - While dry conditions are also expected much of the next 7 days, opportunities for at least isolated storm development is possible Friday/Friday night with higher chances Monday night into Tuesday. - Fire weather concerns will increase into the weekend as well, with very warm, dry, and potentially breezy conditions, especially across the western Sandhills into portions of southwest Nebraska. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 At 3pm CDT, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl was located over far southeast Missouri. Cumulus clouds are bringing partly sunny skies across western Nebraska. Winds were light and variable with temperatures ranging from 83 to 90 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Tonight, an upper disturbance on the western periphery of the main upper trough over the Great Lakes will drop south over the eastern Dakotas into northeast Nebraska. This may trigger a a few showers or thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska just east of the area. Will keep the forecast dry attm, as most models not initiating any convection. Lows in the upper 50s to around 60. On Wednesday, a weak front will drop south, turning wind to light northerly. A weak disturbance will move through Iowa and eastern Nebraska, and may trigger isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon near and east of Highway 281. Highs from 85 to 88 in the east to 88 to 92 across the west. Wednesday night, weak surface high pressure will reside over the area beneath a mostly clear sky. Lows in the upper 50s to near 60. Wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires is shown by the 12Z HRRR to move into north central into eastern Nebraska Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence in any surface impacts remains low for now, though increasingly hazy skies are expected mainly across the northeastern half of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Thursday into Thursday night, the upper ridge axis will build into Wyoming and Montana. Hot temperatures will move into the western Sandhills and southwest with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Slightly cooler air from the upper trough over the Great Lakes will limit highs to 86 to 89 degrees across the east. By Thursday night, a weak disturbance in northwest flow will cross the area. Models are mainly dry, but do generate some weak convection overnight, with differences in location. Will keep the forecast dry attm, but may need a mention in upcoming forecasts. Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the region Friday through Sunday. High reach the 90s, with upper 90s to low 100s across the west and southwest Friday and Saturday. Sunday remains the hottest day across the area. The ECMWF EFI SOT tails nearing 0.9 for Max T. Forecast highs in the low 100s near and west of Highway 83 with upper 90s to the east. The upper ridge will weaken slightly on Monday as an upper trough moves across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. The cold front will remain well north of the area as highs again reach the upper mid to upper 90s, with 100 degrees or slightly hotter continuing across the far west and southwest. Highs in the 90s should continue on Tuesday as an upper trough begin to move into the region. There is a larger spread in Max T for Tuesday, so high temperatures could end up slightly cooler. A slight chance for storms Friday night, mainly across the north central, although the location remains uncertain. Better chances look to arrive Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough to the north moves in and begins to push a cold front into the area. Additionally, will have to monitor the potential for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns as the heat builds into the area. This will send humidity values falling to near critical levels Friday through Monday, across the far western Sandhills and portions of southwest Nebraska. With recent rainfall and green conditions, fuels should be very limited. Dry conditions do exist across the panhandle and portions of the southwest, where fuels may become more receptive. Breezy winds may accompany the warm and dry conditions at times. Will monitor the progression of fuels over the next several days as the warm and dry pattern sets into the area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north central Nebraska through Wednesday. Do expect some scattered fair weather cumulus this afternoon but won`t cause any flight restrictions. Winds will be light and variable. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Roberg SHORT TERM...Roberg LONG TERM...Roberg AVIATION...Taylor