223
FXUS63 KLBF 081116
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
616 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warming conditions are expected through the week and into
next weekend, as the area remains under the influence of upper
ridging.

- Above average temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s return by
next weekend, with increasing heat concerns across much of western
and north central Nebraska.

- Fire weather concerns may increase late week as well, due to
  an overlap of very warm, dry, and breezy conditions,
  especially across western Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently, partly to mostly clear skies prevail across the area with
temperatures ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. Winds remain light
and variable, as surface high pressure continues to spill southward
into the Plains.

For today and tomorrow, expect largely benign weather conditions as
heights rise aloft behind today`s departing trough axis and upper
ridging continues to slowly translate eastward into the Desert
Southwest. The increasing subsidence aloft will keep skies mostly
clear. Surface winds will also remain light, with the area
remaining under the influence of surface high pressure.
Temperatures will begin to moderate as well, with little in the
way of airmass changes anticipated today and tomorrow. Highs
today return to the 80s, with portions of southwest Nebraska
creeping back into the low 90s tomorrow. Lows both tonight and
tomorrow night fall into the middle to upper 50s, with lesser
boundary layer moisture in place in the wake of yesterday`s
system. In fact, today and tomorrow look to be the most pleasant
days weather wise of the entire forecast period, with a return
of much warmer temperatures by late week and into next weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

By Wednesday, a weak shortwave will drop through the upper Midwest,
with an associated backdoor cool front potentially settling into
eastern and central Nebraska. The exact placement of this boundary
remains low confidence, though could hold highs down somewhat
Wednesday east of HWY 83. This boundary could continue to influence
portions of central and north central Nebraska into late week,
though this remains highly uncertain. Further west, confidence
remains higher in a period of anomalously warm temperatures, as
the upper ridge continues to migrate into the Plains by next
weekend. This will send H5 heights above the 90th percentile,
and potentially approaching the 99th percentile climo, by late
weekend. As the thermal ridge approaches the area Sunday, H7
temperatures will approach the 99th percentile climo as well,
amid increasing WAA. This all points to increasing confidence in
a period of temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s this
upcoming weekend, especially for areas along and west of HWY 83.
Sunday looks to be the warmest of the period, as the thermal
ridge approaches overhead. In fact, ensemble guidance has begun
to point towards the potential for record challenging
temperatures for portions of southwestern Nebraska, with an EFI
>0 in more recent runs. Though boundary layer moisture looks to
remain somewhat meager, temperatures well into the low 100s will
lead to increasing heat concerns as we head into the weekend.
Looking at the extended forecast verbatim, heat headlines are
looking increasingly likely for much of western and north
central Nebraska this weekend. Those with outdoor plans should
monitor later forecasts closely, as a period of dangerous heat
is looking increasingly likely across the area both Saturday and
Sunday.

Additionally, will have to monitor the potential for near critical
to critical fire weather concerns as the heat builds into the area.
This will send humidity values falling to critical levels,
primarily across western Nebraska. Add in deep boundary layer
mixing promoting downward momentum transfer, breezy winds may
accompany the warm and dry conditions at times. Will have to
monitor the progression of fuels over the next several days as
the warm and dry pattern sets into the area. Any areas that see
curing will likely encounter increased fire weather concerns as
we head into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Northwest winds aloft will spread dry stable air into wrn and
ncntl Nebraska today and tonight. VFR will be widespread during
this time and the risk of MVFR or lower flight conditions will
remain low.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...CDC