Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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039 FXUS63 KLBF 062047 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 347 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible through early evening with hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, severe winds up to 65 mph, and isolated tornadoes as the primary threats. * Isolated thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday across the region, although the severe risk remains low with heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding being the main concern. * Quieter and cooler weather (temperatures in the 70s) is expected for next week before temperatures increase back into the 90s by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Scattered thunderstorms across portions of southwest and north central Nebraska currently present on radar will continue to push eastward into eastern Nebraska through this evening. While the severe threat is winding down, some isolated storms may still produce some large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, strong winds up to 65 mph and an isolated tornado. In addition, heavy rainfall combined with training of storms will cause a localized flooding concern across portions of the region. A flash flood warning has been issued for Custer county as this area has been particularly hard hit with several rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve this evening and overnight as storms come to an end and water will be allowed to recede. Cooler air will push in behind the departing system tonight dropping high temperatures into the mid 70s on Sunday. A return to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected for Sunday as a shortwave trough tracks across southwest Nebraska. Cooler temperatures combined with limited stability will limit severe potential. However a few stronger storms are still possible that may result in some small hail. Localized flooding will also be a concern again as heavy rainfall falls on saturated ground. Any heavy rainfall should be short lived and flooding should remain brief. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Upper level ridging across the western US will allow for surface high pressure to build southward into the Great Plains on Monday lasting through much of next week. Cooler air will continue to push into the region keeping highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; nearly 10 degrees below normal. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout the week, returning into the 90s by next weekend. While the majority of next week remains quiet, a few isolated chances for rain showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday. At this time, the majority of the storms will remain across eastern Nebraska, however, some of our eastern counties (Wheeler, Garfield, Custer) may see some brief storm development, especially in the late afternoon when diurnal heating is at it`s peak. At this time, severe storms are not anticipated, but this may change in the upcoming days. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Isolated thunderstorms will become more scattered and numerous throughout the afternoon. Some storms may become severe with large hail, strong and erratic winds, and an isolated tornado as the main threats. Main area of development will be across southwest and central Nebraska, impacting KLBF during the late afternoon hours. Thunderstorms will push off to the east by 00Z with overcast skies continuing through Sunday morning. Across the north (KVTN), thunderstorms should remain south of the terminal with just some brief lowering of clouds expected. Improvement in ceilings returns Sunday morning. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Kulik