039
FXUS63 KLBF 062047
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
347 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A slight risk (risk level 2 of 5) of severe weather is possible
  through early evening with hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter,
  severe winds up to 65 mph, and isolated tornadoes as the primary
  threats.

* Isolated thunderstorms are possible again on Sunday across the
  region, although the severe risk remains low with heavy rainfall
  leading to localized flooding being the main concern.

* Quieter and cooler weather (temperatures in the 70s) is
  expected for next week before temperatures increase back into
  the 90s by the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered thunderstorms across portions of southwest and north
central Nebraska currently present on radar will continue to push
eastward into eastern Nebraska through this evening. While the
severe threat is winding down, some isolated storms may still
produce some large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, strong winds up
to 65 mph and an isolated tornado. In addition, heavy rainfall
combined with training of storms will cause a localized flooding
concern across portions of the region. A flash flood warning has
been issued for Custer county as this area has been particularly
hard hit with several rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon.
Conditions will gradually improve this evening and overnight as
storms come to an end and water will be allowed to recede.

Cooler air will push in behind the departing system tonight dropping
high temperatures into the mid 70s on Sunday. A return to isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected for Sunday as a
shortwave trough tracks across southwest Nebraska. Cooler
temperatures combined with limited stability will limit severe
potential. However a few stronger storms are still possible that may
result in some small hail. Localized flooding will also be a concern
again as heavy rainfall falls on saturated ground. Any heavy
rainfall should be short lived and flooding should remain brief.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Upper level ridging across the western US will allow for surface
high pressure to build southward into the Great Plains on Monday
lasting through much of next week. Cooler air will continue to push
into the region keeping highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; nearly 10
degrees below normal. Temperatures will gradually warm throughout
the week, returning into the 90s by next weekend.

While the majority of next week remains quiet, a few isolated
chances for rain showers and thunderstorms return on Wednesday. At
this time, the majority of the storms will remain across eastern
Nebraska, however, some of our eastern counties (Wheeler, Garfield,
Custer) may see some brief storm development, especially in the late
afternoon when diurnal heating is at it`s peak. At this time, severe
storms are not anticipated, but this may change in the upcoming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will become more scattered and numerous
throughout the afternoon. Some storms may become severe with large
hail, strong and erratic winds, and an isolated tornado as the main
threats. Main area of development will be across southwest and
central Nebraska, impacting KLBF during the late afternoon hours.
Thunderstorms will push off to the east by 00Z with overcast skies
continuing through Sunday morning. Across the north (KVTN),
thunderstorms should remain south of the terminal with just some
brief lowering of clouds expected. Improvement in ceilings returns
Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Kulik