Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
937 FXUS62 KKEY 150242 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 A tongue of drier air is visible on water vapor imagery across South Florida. MFL`s 00Z sounding captured this drier air, with a PW of 1.48" and multiple layers of dry air sampled. Meanwhile, the KEY 00Z sounding measured a PW of 1.81", as well as ample CAPE and minimal inhibition. A surge of moisture associated with a tropical wave east of the area is starting to push into the eastern portions of the area, with convection bubbling in the eastern Straits of Florida. There have been multiple rounds of thunderstorms that have moved across portions of the Florida Keys forecast area, but all have waned aside from the aforementioned activity in the Straits. Most of the island chain has remained rain-free this evening despite all of the thunderstorm activity. Marine observation platforms are measuring winds of 10 to 15 knots along the Reef at this hour. Temperatures have "cooled off" into the mid to upper 80s, with heat indices still nearing 100 degrees. Unfortunately, little relief is expected overnight as low temperatures are only expected to dip into the lower to mid 80s. There is a chance to see lower temperatures in rain-cooled areas, but this will likely be short-lived. With the surge of moisture coming in from the east, and the already copious amounts of activity upstream, it is hard to drop PoPs tonight from 50%. High pressure in the North Atlantic will maintain moderate breezes overnight, with a gradual slackening expected overnight. Mostly clear skies will be overtaken by the cloud debris/cloud cover associated with the convection to the east. No changes were made to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle to moderate breezes out of the east to southeast will continue through Thursday as ridging will remain in place across the forecast area. Multiple rounds of moisture will lead to slightly elevated rain and thunder chances through at least Tuesday before some drier air sneaks in during the mid-week. Just how much moisture returns at the end of the week is still in question, but a shift in the weather pattern may lead to an increase in breezes. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 While VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period, instances of MVFR cloud cover and possible IFR VIS are possible within passing showers and thunderstorms. Have included mention of showers starting at 5Z for MTH and 6Z for EYW as showers develop in the moist easterly flow currently moving across the eastern Straits of Florida. Outside of any convection, surface winds will be from the east at 8 to 12 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 98F and the daily record warm low temperature of 86F were both recorded in Marathon. Temperature records in Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 89 81 89 / 50 50 40 40 Marathon 80 91 80 91 / 50 50 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest