Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
169 FXUS62 KKEY 060932 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 532 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There are only so many ways we can say that we are waking up to another quiet morning along the Keys, but here we are. Variable wind directions have resulted in some areas of convergence, and the KBYX radar has shown a couple of very small, and very short- lived showers. The variability in the wind direction will continue into the morning before a uniform east to southeasterly direction resumes, so it`s possible another shower or two will pop up on radar before the morning update is issued later. Satellite obs are showing a mix of some lower level clouds and a blanket of higher clouds across the forecast area, but that blanket is thin enough to still allow plenty of sunshine through once it rises. Today is essentially going to look like yesterday with mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and heat indices in the afternoon approaching (but not quite hitting) advisory criteria. Tomorrow still looks to be the better chance for measurable rainfall. Opted to keep the 40 percent PoPs that were inherited as the surge of moisture expected coupled with an area of confluence aiding in lift could lead to better organized shower and thunderstorm activity. It is still too difficult to say just how much rainfall could come from any showers, but the overall message of a possibly wet day still stands. From Monday onward, ridging will keep us in an easterly flow that will allow periods of enhanced moisture. Since this is a typical summertime pattern, have opted to keep the climatological PoPs through the end of the week. All of this to say, it is summertime in Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 here are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, overall light to gentle southeasterly breezes will continue through the weekend, but will become more moderate on Monday and Tuesday due to some shifting in the overall weather pattern. By Wednesday, these breezes will slacken again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 340 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF package. There are some indications of isolated showers and thunderstorms developing around 06/12z with the risk continuing through 06/18z. However, due to the uncertainty in timing and placement, decided to leave VCSH out of the TAFs for now. Near- surface winds will remain out of the east to southeast at 3 to 8 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys Weather History, the daily record warm low temperature of 85F was recorded in Key West set back in 2018. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, the daily record warm low temperature of 86F was recorded in Marathon set back in 1957. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded during the month of July. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. OF NOTE In 2021, Tropical Storm Elsa moved roughly 55 miles west of Key West late July 5th through early afternoon July 6th, with the center of the storm passing in between Key West and the Dry Tortugas. It produced maximum sustained winds of 52 mph at Key West international Airport and 48 knots at Smith Shoal Light, with wind gusts to 70 mph and 58 knots, respectively. Rainfall totals were the highest in Key West as well with Key West International Airport measuring 4.49 inches, the NWS Key West office measuring 6.62 inches, with a maximum rainfall amount of 7.54 inches on Catherine Street in Key West. No significant impacts were noted from Tropical Storm Elsa with the exception of significant street flooding of 6 to 10 inches in depth in Old Town and Midtown Key West as strong rain bands with high rainfall rates moved across the island. Otherwise, most damage was confined to widely-separated downed tree limbs from Key West to the Saddlebunch Keys due to nearly 13 hours of Tropical- Storm-Force gusts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 90 82 / 30 20 40 40 Marathon 89 82 89 82 / 30 20 40 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest