Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
165 FXUS62 KKEY 021522 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1122 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The 12z morning sounding at KEY highlighted a loaded profile, with no inhibition, decent low- and mid-level lapse rates, no capping inversion, and plenty of mixed-layer instability. Despite all of these factors, mean southeast to south steering flow is currently winning the convective battle. Recent GOES-16 visible satellite imagery reveals a distinct shadow around the island of Cuba progressing into the Straits of Florida, where only struggling cumuli can be seen. The main question of the day is if low-level winds can gradually back to the east to southeast over the next several hours, as powerful Hurricane Beryl continues to make its westward progression in the southern Caribbean. This would lead to a window of confluence that might overcome the Cuban Shadow-driven subsidence. The chances of this occurring are high enough to warrant low-end chance level measurable rainfall for the island communities, with at least a slight chance of an overachieving thunderstorm. No changes proposed for this late morning update. && .MARINE... Issued at 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, high pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate easterly breezes across the Florida Keys. Hurricane Beryl will remain south of the Florida Keys as it continues to march west northwest through the Caribbean Sea this afternoon through Thursday. Breezes will freshen Wednesday and Wednesday night as Beryl makes its closest approach. Please review the Tropical Cyclone Advisories for additional information on the track and future evolution of Beryl. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period for both terminals. Near-surface southeasterly winds of up to 10 kts become east to southeasterly this evening and overnight. && .CLIMATE... On this date in 1878, a tropical storm passed about 100 miles north of Key West, where a minimum pressure of 29.77" was recorded along with a peak sustained wind of 36 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 83 91 83 / 20 20 30 30 Marathon 89 83 91 83 / 30 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MJV Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest