Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
645 FXUS62 KKEY 050910 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 510 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 High clouds are stretching across the forecast area this morning, but the lack of meteorological returns on radar means everyone will be waking up to a dry morning along the Keys. High pressure that is enveloping the region will prevent any large scale ascent, and we are still opting to keep PoPs at 20% as we head into the weekend since we can`t rule out smaller scale ascent such as converging breezes or boundaries. The combination of high temperatures near 90F and dew points in the upper 70s will lead to heat indices climbing into the low 100s during the afternoon, and this looks to be the case for the next few days since the high pressure doesn`t seem to be going anywhere just yet. There is still some uncertainty as to how the pattern changes over the first half of next week. Guidance continues to show back to back tropical waves approaching Florida, which would bring a surge of moisture and provide ascent to trigger showers and thunderstorms. The finer details such as areal coverage, rainfall totals, wind speeds, etc still have much uncertainty behind them due to model disagreement. The overall message of a possibly wet first half of the week is what we will continue to advertise. Once guidance gets a better handle on the evolution of the pattern, then we will be able to hone in on what kind of impacts, if any, we could see from the uptick in active weather. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Light to gentle east to southeast breezes will continue into the weekend as high pressure settles in over the area. These gentle breezes will nudge to the southeast and south on Sunday before returning back to a more easterly direction and become gentle to moderate on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 333 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through Friday evening at the EYW and MTH terminals. Only isolated showers at most are expected during the day, however more substantial convection may move SSW from the Everglades and approach the terminals during the evening. Confidence in this scenario is too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Surface winds will remain from the E to SE at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 91 83 90 83 / 20 20 20 20 Marathon 90 82 90 83 / 20 20 20 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....Jacobson Data Acquisition.....Jacobson Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest