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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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353 FXUS63 KJKL 141119 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 719 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions continue into the middle of this week, with increasing humidity Monday through Wednesday contributing to maximum heat indices around 100 degrees. - The next significant chance of rain will arrive mid-week with the approach of a cold front producing showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 715 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 Made some minor edits to the PoPs for this afternoon into the overnight to better match neighboring offices with regards to both spatial and temporal extent. Otherwise, no changes were needed, with the latest observations used to initialize the grids for continuity. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 We continue in a pattern with weakly cyclonic flow aloft and weakly anticyclonic flow in the lower levels, with little in the way of significant warm moist advection into the eastern Kentucky. This leaves eastern Kentucky mostly hot and dry through Monday, with the best chance at any precipitation, though modest at best, coming this afternoon into the early evening as a disturbance moving east across the Midwest may allow for an upstream MCS to push into the northern half of the forecast area from the northwest. This activity would almost assuredly be weakening and then dissipating as it moves into the area, if it even makes it this far. Monday appears dry though if a shower or thunderstorm were to occur in the late afternoon it would most likely be over the high terrain near or along the TN and VA borders. Fog development tonight beyond the typical river valleys would likely be dependent on whether shower and thunderstorm activity reaches the area this afternoon into early evening. Highs today will reach the lower to mid 90s this afternoon, but rise into the mid-90s with a couple of upper-90s sprinkled in Monday. With a slight rise in humidity Monday, heat indices will approach or reach 100 degrees. Lows tonight will be mild with lows around 70 degrees, with mid to upper 60s in the typically cooler sheltered valleys. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 523 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 The 14/00z model suite upper level analysis beginning Monday evening shows ridging extending from the Atlantic into the far Southeast US with some relative troughiness over the Lower Mississippi Valley before heights climb again toward an ~595 dam high over the Four Corners. Well to the north an ~556 dam low is embedded in a digging trough dropping out of northern Manitoba toward the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure centered of the open Atlantic extends westward into the Southeast CONUS. Meanwhile, an ~1000 mb surface low is passing over Lake Superior. A cold front trails southwest from this low back to near Kansas City then west and northwest to along the eastern foothills of the Northern Rockies. Moisture levels will continue to rise across the Ohio Valley on Monday night and Tuesday as southwesterly return flow continues to pull in higher humidity. Isolated deep convection is possible by the afternoon hours on Tuesday, but the lack of a forcing mechanism favors initiation mainly occurring over higher terrain near the Virginia border. Given increasingly high instability and plenty of mid-level dry air but only weak shear, any storms on Tuesday could pose a localized strong to damaging wind threat as they collapse. The more widespread rain threat doesn`t come until late Tuesday night and Wednesday when more numerous showers and possible thunderstorms impact eastern Kentucky just ahead of and along the cold front. Mid-level winds increase slightly on Wednesday leading to slightly better shear ahead of the front`s parent upper level trough, perhaps supporting semi-organized multicellular storm structures. Again though, any strong to severe wind threat appears isolated. After PoPs peak in the 70 to 90% range on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the cold front, rain chances will diminish later in the evening and Wednesday night as the front presses through eastern Kentucky. The boundary eventually hangs up just south and east of our region and wavers right through the upcoming weekend as upper level troughing prevails over the Ohio Valley. Diurnal heating and disturbances passing aloft will act as a trigger for daily shower and thunderstorm threat through Saturday with the highest chances in counties adjacent to Virginia and nearest to the wavering frontal boundary. Aside from the threat for rain, the air mass behind our mid-week cold front will be noticeably cooler than what has been seen lately. Prefrontal high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to reach the middle 90s at most locations with heat indices peaking within a few degrees of 100F. That kind of heat will just be a memory come Thursday when eastern Kentucky is forecast to only see highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The cooler air also looks as if it will be sticking around as highs only slowly moderate into the lower to middle 80s by Saturday. Nighttime low temperatures will also go from the muggy upper 60s to mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday nights to the comfortable upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday and Friday nights. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SUN JUL 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Any lingering river valley fog this morning should dissipate by ~13z, with scattered cumulus developing in the afternoon with daytime heating. Kept any mention of VCSH or VCTS out of the forecast, but it may need to be added later especially at KSYM if upstream organized convection moves in our direction. At this time, such activity is expected to remain north of the area. Winds are expected to remain light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...CMC