031
FXUS63 KJKL 081737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
137 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather will be in place today and Tuesday with
  afternoon heat indices approaching 100 degrees in a few
  locations.

- The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into
  Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
  activity. A few of the storms Tuesday afternoon and evening
  could be strong with damaging wind gusts the main threat -
  though a tornado cannot be ruled out.

- More seasonable temperatures follow for Thursday, before daily
  highs return back to the lower 90s by the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

The WSR-88D radar is picking up on a few showers developing in
Bell County this afternoon and this was well placed in the
forecast grids. Overall these have been very weak and localized.
Not expected much shower or thunderstorm activity outside the
areas nearer the Virginia and Tennessee borders this afternoon.
Outside this only minor changes to the add in the latest obs and
trends.

UPDATE Issued at 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

This morning we have a few mainly mid- and high level clouds
moving into the area from the southwest. Outside this, sunny skies
and summer like heat are the stories of the day. No big changes
needed for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

No substantial change to the forecast - just the inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure weakening over the area as
the core of it moves further off to the northeast. This has
allowed more clouds to work into this part of the state early
this morning. The added clouds are likely hindering the fog
development for all but the deeper valleys and also slowing the
temperature drop. The high pressure has also been keeping the
winds light to calm through the night. Currently temperatures are
varying from the low 70s on the ridges to the mid 60s in many of
the sheltered valley spots. Meanwhile, dewpoints are running
higher than last night at this time - generally in the mid to
upper 60s.

Despite the addition of Beryl into the pattern, the models, and
their individual ensemble suites, are still in pretty good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict 5h ridging over the Southeast holding on for one
more day keeping heights elevated over eastern Kentucky into
Tuesday morning. About that time, though, the upper levels of
Beryl will start to be absorbed into the westerlies and lift north
through the lower Mississippi Valley on its way to the western
portion of the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. As it approaches
Kentucky, height falls will occur throughout the state, more
energy start to arrive at mid levels, and the winds aloft will
become more favorable for organized storms. Given the still small
model spread have again favored the NBM as the starting point for
the forecast grids - along with some enhancement from the latest
CAMs consensus.

Sensible weather features a couple of hot and increasingly humid
days on tap. Just a few locations will be lucky enough to see some
cooling and refreshing convection this afternoon - mainly places
closer to the Tennessee and Virginia border. There should still
be enough thin patches in the clouds to allow for a small ridge to
valley temperature difference tonight and patchy river valley
fog formation. Tuesday will continue the uncomfortable heat with
more locations seeing a shot of convection in the afternoon on
account of the approach of Beryl`s remains as it lifts into
Illinois. Good turning of winds with height and their overall
strength will favor stronger and potentially organized storms for
much of the area into the evening, Tuesday. Damaging wind gusts
will be the main threat - conditional on storm development - but
also a tornado or two cannot be ruled out due to that wind field.

The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting
the PoPs for spatial and temporal consensus from the CAMs, on
Tuesday especially. The NBM temperatures were only slightly
tweaked tonight for small terrain details.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

Ridging will be aligned across the West as well from the western
Atlantic through the southeastern CONUS the middle of next week.
In between these two ridges, the remnants of Beryl will get
absorbed into a positively tilted trough positioned from the Great
Lakes region through the southern Plains, over the central CONUS.
The trough will gradually weaken through the weekend, as 500 mb
heights increase with time over the southern half of the CONUS,
with hot temperatures returning across the Tennessee and Ohio
valleys.

Overall, there has been a quicker progression as well as a more
southeast shift to the track of the remnants of Beryl compared to
last night. Still, this mainly results in an uptick in PoPs
Tuesday night into Wednesday; however, besides some progressive
isolated heavy rainers, more focused QPF remains to our
northwest. PoPs peak in the likely (60-70%) range on Wednesday, as
the core of the tropical remnants pass by to our northwest, along
with an associated surface cold front that will move through the
Commonwealth. Diurnally-driven smaller PoP chances hang on through
the rest of the period; however, these generally become more
confined to southeastern Kentucky, as the surface front and
associated better moisture stalls over the Appalachians. Humid
conditions will temporarily retreat by Thursday, with more
seasonable highs in the mid 80s. Temperatures will then trend
hotter into next weekend, with highs returning to lower 90s,
along with dew points gradually creeping up towards the 70 degree
mark by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON JUL 8 2024

We will see VFR conditions for most locations for the period.
There are some showers and eventually the potential for a few
thunderstorms mainly near the Tennessee and Virginia border. These
are not expected to affected the TAF sites at this time. There is
the potential for low clouds and fog to develop mainly in the
river valleys late tonight, and there is the outside chance this
could drift into a TAF site. Given short term guidance is not as
bold with this idea will leave out of the TAF sites for now. The
winds will be light and variable generally less than 5 knots out
of the south and southeast.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ