Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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342 FXUS63 KJKL 060223 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 1023 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few thunderstorms through late tonight could produce locally heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. - Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold front on Saturday. - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1022 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed this evening as dew points have slowly recovered/risen into the mid-70s after this afternoon`s convection. This activity is ahead of a cold front moving west to east across central Kentucky currently. Have adjusted PoPs and Sky grids accordingly based on radar and satellite trends, with the remainder of the forecast largely remaining on track. UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Trimmed PoPs and Sky cover grids down given latest observed trends. Radar does depict a few isolated showers, and SPC Mesoanalysis does indicate some remaining instability to support a few showers or storms. Dew points have trended lower from the mid to upper 70s to the lower 70s late this afternoon behind today`s earlier convection, which supports the idea of lowering PoPs. All other fields were initialized with the observations to ensure a smooth blend into the forecast fields. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 440 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Late this afternoon, narrows ridging extended from portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeast across portions of the southeastern Conus to southeast of the mid Atlantic coast with a stronger ridge another near the west coast of the Conus and a general area of broad troughing south from central Canada into the western Great Lakes to south central Conus and MS Valley. A shortwave trough ahead of the 500 mb trough axis was working across portions of the OH Valley at this time with associated convection that crossed the region from late in the morning into the afternoon having largely departed to WV and VA. At the surface, an area of low pressure was working across the Great Lakes region with a trailing cold front working across western and central KY to the Arklatex and further west toward the Southern Plains. Behind this system a sfc high extended from the Plains toward the mid MS Valley. This evening and tonight, the shortwave trough working across the region will depart to the east and northeast this evening. The 500 mb trough axis will remain across Central portions of the Conus and west of the Commonwealth through Saturday night. Height rises are expected to rise a bit on Saturday across the southeastern Conus and into eastern KY, while little change in mid level heights is expected late tonight as well as on Saturday night. At the surface, the cold front will continue east this evening across eastern KY and work into WV and VA overnight. Behind this system, sfc high pressure will build east into the OH Valley and settle over portions of the OH Valley and the Appalachians to end the period. Ahead of the front, isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening with chances diminishing even near the WV and VA border not longer after midnight. Fog should form at least in the valleys late tonight and could become rather widespread areawide following rainfall earlier today. A cooler and drier airmass will move into the area behind the front as the high works east into the area for Saturday and remain in place through Saturday night. Less humid weather for Saturday and Saturday night will be most notable with lows falling below 70 for most areas tonight and areawide on Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 610 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Weak surface high pressure will initially be found over the Mid- Ohio Ohio Valley on Sunday morning while a frontal boundary will be parked along the southeastern slopes of the Appalachians, corralling the soupy humidity levels to our south and east. The placid weather over the Ohio Valley won`t persist though as the combination of two weather makers, a upper level trough dipping into the Central CONUS and and Hurricane Beryl approaching the Lower Rio Grande Valley, likely set the stage for periods of wet weather across the eastern Kentucky Coalfields. High pressure will gradually depart to the northeast on Sunday, allowing a southerly return flow to develop in advance of the approaching upper level trough. This will pull the boundary to our south back north and bring back sultry humidity levels on Monday. Meanwhile, the advancing trough will push a cold front into the Ohio Valley. This will lead to renewed diurnally modulated shower and thunderstorm activity beginning Monday and lasting into Tuesday. Thereafter, models are increasingly latching onto the idea of Beryl`s remnants riding northeastward along the boundary during the middle and latter portions of the week, which would feed tropical moisture into our region and keep the daily threat of showers and thunderstorms over our area. Temperature-wise, look for highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s on Sunday, warming slightly into the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. The most notable sensible change will be the rise in humidity levels, which will boost Monday afternoon`s heat indices to near 100F at some locations. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will also return on Monday. Greater cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures more subdued from Tuesday through at least Thursday, with highs primarily in the middle 80s. Nighttime lows are forecast to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 5 2024 Cold front crosses the region overnight tonight and ends chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chance for a remaining shower or storm this evening is at KSJS, but TAF sites probably remain dry from this point onward. Winds will average 10 KT or less outside of any convection, from the southwest to west through 06Z and then becoming west to northwest for the balance of the period behind the cold front. Fog will also become a concern in the 06Z to 13Z timeframe when at IFR and MVFR reductions will be possible at all TAF sites. Given drier air advecting into the region during the typical foggy period, was not especially confident in putting FM groups, but did use some TEMPO groups for now. Residual cloud cover may also inhibit fog formation somewhat during this time frame as well. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...CMC