521
FXUS63 KJKL 071906
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
306 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows through tomorrow
  morning before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops
  during the new work week.

- The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into
  Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
  activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure centered near the
northern parts of the Ohio Valley. In the mid-level, we will see
influence from the higher heights in the Southeast US. The
deterministic and ensemble solutions are in good agreement the mid-
level heights remain largely in place and high pressure pushes east
through the period. Sensible weather wise, we will see a mix of
clear skies and clouds tonight as mid- and higher level flow bring
in mainly high clouds at times. This could still lead to some
slight ridge/valley differences in overnight lows, with lows in
the low to mid 60s in the valleys and mid to upper 60s on the
ridges. There could also be another episode of mainly river valley
fog similar to last night depending on cloud cover to some
degree.

The guidance including ensembles shows surface high pushes east and
opens up weak but southwest flow at the surface. This should help to
yield higher PWAT values similar to that of what we are seeing in
the Smokey Mountains today. The HREF shows shows at least 1.5 to 1.7
PWATs in those areas nearer the Tennessee and Virginia border by
Monday afternoon. The Smokies are seeing showers and thunderstorms
develop under ample heating and moisture today. Given this did
maintain 15 to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
near the higher terrain of the far southeast near the Virginia and
Tennessee border for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, height rises in
the afternoon will keep most other areas dry at this point. We will
see another hot afternoon with heat indices climbing to near 100
degrees, as we see moisture return and afternoon highs in the lower
90s. We could start seeing more clouds return especially Monday
night given the remnants of Beryl moves into parts of the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Given this only minor ridge/valley
splits were maintained at this point, with overnight lows
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

A seasonably strong ridge will start out aligned across the West,
with a positively tilted trough positioned from Hudson Bay through
the western Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and southern Plains.
Meanwhile, Beryl will be closing in on the Arklatex region, while
another ridge center remains over the southeastern CONUS. The
models are in decent agreement through next week, with the
remnants of Beryl eventually combining with the positively tilted
trough to our west through mid-week. This trough will then
gradually dampen by the end of the work week, with ridging and
associated increasing 500 mb heights taking hold over the
Tennessee and Ohio Valley into next weekend.

Details associated with Beryl and its more specific impacts across
eastern Kentucky still remain uncertain at this time. In general,
the track remains to our northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. While
the typical influx of anomalously high PWATs will occur, storm
motions will be progressive. The low level flow will also be more
southeasterly while the system is stronger. As such, the current
model guidance does not show more concentrated higher QPF across
eastern Kentucky. Still, at least isolated heavy rainers will be
a possibility. Effective shears will also peak in the 30-35 kt
range, coupled with more narrow CAPE profiles. This could allow
for a few stronger storms, but will await further model guidance
before including any more specifics at this point.

PoPs will peak in the 40-60% range Tuesday night into Wednesday,
as the core of the tropical remnants pass through, along with an
associated surface cold front, and short wave energy aloft.
Diurnally-driven PoP chances will then become more confined
across southeastern Kentucky through the rest of the week, as the
surface front stalls over the Appalachians. Tuesday looks to be
the overall hottest day through the extended, with highs mainly in
the lower 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the low 70s, will
yield peak heat indices of around 100 degrees. Highs will then
retreat to the mid and upper 80s for mid-week, with stormier
conditions at play. A slight lowering of the dew points will occur
on Thursday behind the cold front. Temperatures will then trend
warmer into next weekend, with highs returning to around 90
degrees by Saturday, along with dew points nearing around 70
once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

We have high pressure at the surface and ridging in the mid-levels
leading to VFR conditions this afternoon. There are some afternoon
cumulus hanging around 4 kft and these will dissipate as we move
toward the evening. Outside this valley fog will be possible once
again tonight and will mainly be confined to the river valley
locations. However, did add in MVFR mist at SME and SYM given a
more persistence forecast. This fog will lift around 13 to 14Z
Monday morning. The winds will remain light and calm generally
less that 5 knots out of the northeast and then southwest by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ