818
FXUS62 KJAX 060548
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
148 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Lingering isolated thunderstorms will continue to dissipate as the
sun goes down across NE FL and SE GA, tonight lows will be mild in
the mid to upper 70s. Saturday, PWATs will soar above 2.0" area-
wide as a front approaches from the northwest. Numerous showers
and embedded thunderstorms will fire up in the afternoon, with
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall as the primary hazards.
Heat indices will reach 105-100 degrees over most inland locations,
a Heat Advisory will likely be issued overnight for portions of
NE FL and SE GA.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Squeeze play already evident on visible satellite imagery with
this morning`s low cloudiness lifting and becoming the focusing
mechanism for afternoon and evening convection. The east coast
sea breeze front is approaching I-95 and moving slowly inland.
Precip Water is 2.00+ across the region so locally heavy rainfall
with convection is likely. Expect the main sea breeze front
convergence to be between I-75 and U.S. 301 northward to the FL-
GA State Line and then between U.S. 1 and U.S. 301 over SE
Georgia. With clearing skies tonight and moist ground from the
day`s convection will see fog formation across the interior with a
broken low cloud deck after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

This Saturday a cold front will be situated from the western
Carolinas thru north central Georgia into southern Louisiana.
This scenario will allow markedly heighten precipitable water
values (2.25 to 2.40") to pool across the region. A persistent
pattern continues with warm temps aloft with mid level Atlantic
ridge well offshore with our region on the western periphery of
the high pressure area. With warm temperatures aloft (-5C at 5h)
not expecting much in the way of severe convection but some very
localized heavy rain (1 to 3") is anticipated with slow moving
storms. The weak pressure pattern will allowing both the Atlantic
and Gulf coast seabreezes to move inland and merge near highway
301. With drier air aloft, some strong wind gust potential (30 to
45 mph) may occur with some pulse storms along with frequent
lightning. Light east to southeast winds 5-10 mph will move
onshore behind the Atlantic seabreeze with light SW winds behind
the Gulf seabreeze. Highs will rise into the mid 90s away from the
coast with low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will be in
the 105-110 degree range near heat advisory levels, particularly
over the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.

Saturday night, T`storms should end by midnight inland with very
light southerly winds turning near calm well after sunset. Multi
level cloud cover from fading T`storms will slowly disperse
overnight to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid 70s
inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast.

Very similar pattern will persist on Sunday. The cold front will
hedge slightly southward with the feature over south central
Georgia to near the FL Panhandle/Alabama border. The mid to upper
level ridging over the eastern Gulf/FL peninsula. With the weak
surface pressure gradient, both seabreezes should merge inland
with locally heavy rainfall creating potential localized flooding
concerns due to the high moisture content and slow storm motions.
Highs will be a only a degree or two lower compared to Saturday
due to more numerous to widespread T`storm coverage and mostly
cloudy skies in the afternoon/early evening hours with low to mid
90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values will
range 104-108 degrees, again on the precipice of heat advisory
criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Persistent west-central Atlantic ridging over does nudge eastward
over the east-central part of the Basin with some weakening of
the peripheral influence of the western part of the ridge over our
region. A secondary front moves into nearly the same position as
our weekend front keeping a persistent pattern over the region.
Temperatures aloft (H5) stay about the same (-4C to -5C). PWATs
remain sticky (> 2.00 inches) thru much of the period. The
pressure gradient remains weak with storm steering flow light
S/SSW Monday through Tuesday. Weaker flow Wednesday and Thursday
will likely bring merging seabreezes near Highway 301. High end
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers are
anticipated through the period.

Temperatures will begin the period near normal Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the lower 90s and and then warm to above normal
the rest of the week as highs inland reach the mid 90s with
isolated upper 90s not out of the question. Lows will be a little
above normal in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to
near 80 at the immediate coast and St Johns river basin.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A few lingering clouds near GNV from earlier convection will
continue to fade through daybreak with MVFR due to shallow ground
fog included in a TEMPO group given yesterday`s rainfall. Also
included MVFR at VQQ due to persistence...with VFR at other
terminals through daybreak. SSW winds will develop at coastal
terminals through daybreak, 3-7 kts with near calm to VRB03kts
inland.

VFR conditions will prevail this morning as light southerly winds
become more influenced by both the east and west coast sea
breezes into the afternoon. Better coverage of showers and storms
expected today, with elevated chances at VQQ and especially
GNV...with lowest potential at coastal terminals. For now, left
out convection at SSI, CRG and SGJ. Included VCTS at JAX, VQQ and
GNV...with prevailing TS at GNV by 21-22z. Resultant storms will
continue to be very slow moving and gradually fade in coverage and
intensity into the early evening (after 00z) and thus trended VQQ
and GNV to VCSH after 00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The Bermuda-Azores High Pressure area will ridge back across the
FL peninsula through the period with nocturnal wind surges each
night along the western periphery of the ridge. Also the east
coast sea breeze front will develop over the near shore waters
each afternoon and evening.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend due to an
easterly swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  75  91  75 /  70  40  70  40
SSI  90  80  90  79 /  40  20  50  40
JAX  94  77  93  76 /  60  20  50  30
SGJ  92  77  93  77 /  40  10  30  30
GNV  93  76  93  74 /  70  30  60  20
OCF  93  76  93  76 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$