Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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900 FXUS62 KJAX 140000 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 0800 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Lowered temperatures over locations which received some rainfall from earlier showers/storms over north central Florida. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Lows tonight will trend down to the mid 70s across the area, with coastal locations a bit warmer in the upper 70s. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Rest of this afternoon...Slight increase in deeper moisture aloft over NE FL to the south of the I-10 corridor still on track to interact with sea breeze fronts and should lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms through sunset with slow and erratic storm movement and some heavy downpours as the main threat. Along the I-10 corridor and points northward across SE GA still have some lingering drier airmass aloft and will likely only see widely scattered showers and storms through the evening hours. Heat indices still expected to peak in the 104-108F range as convection gets started during the mid-late afternoon hours as temps reach well into the 90s area-wide. Tonight...Later start to some convection and outflows/sea breeze interaction will likely lead to at least isolated showers and storms over inland areas until around midnight tonight. Otherwise fair skies with some leftover convective debris clouds in the mid/upper levels and humid conditions overnight with lows in the lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas and St. Johns River Basin. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The area will remain on the western periphery of a Bermuda high maintaining light south-southwesterly flow. The Atlantic sea breeze will likely only shift to the I-95 corridor each day. Scattered to numerous showers and storms developing along the sea breezes on Sunday will be mainly focused in NE FL and coastal SE GA. Coverage then increases to area-wide on Monday as low-level tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) spreads back northward. Hot daytime temperatures are expected in the mid/upper 90s. With dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices could rise into the 103-108 F range on Sunday. Heat Advisory conditions may be possible on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Summertime pattern of numerous showers and storms developing each afternoon along the sea breezes continues into mid-week. A frontal boundary starts to drop southward towards northern GA by Thursday and Friday, which could bring the potential for more widespread rain chances for the area. High temperatures lower slightly into the low/mid 90s due to area-wide convection each day. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 0800 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Lingering showers and storms will clear during overnight hours. Moisture over the area will see the chance of showers and storms along north central Florida and along the coast. GNV/SGJ will see the higher chances of showers/storms near 16Z/17Z, included PROB30 for those sites. && .MARINE... Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Bermuda high pressure will remain the dominant feature into next week resulting in generally light southerly flow. Daily surges of south-southeasterly winds develop across the nearshore waters with the development of the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will gradually build through the weekend into early next week as a modest onshore swell reaches the local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues at all local beaches this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 97 75 96 / 10 20 10 60 SSI 79 93 78 93 / 10 20 10 50 JAX 75 95 76 95 / 10 70 20 60 SGJ 76 93 77 93 / 20 50 30 60 GNV 73 94 75 93 / 30 70 20 70 OCF 74 93 75 94 / 40 70 20 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$