825
FXUS62 KJAX 082318
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
718 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered to numerous showers and t-storms are expected into the
early evening before gradually diminishing. Otherwise partly cloudy
skies are expected with low temperatures Tonight in the mid-upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the region with a synoptic
west-southwesterly flow pattern pinning the Atlantic sea breeze
pretty close to the east coast. Convection will start up along the
Gulf and push inland in the late morning to early afternoon
hours, later interacting with the Atlantic sea breeze prompting
numerous showers and thunderstorms across NE FL and SE GA.
Westerly flow will continue on Wednesday, with PWATs remaining
near 2.0", again numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
by afternoon across the area. Heavy rainfall and training storms
may pose local flooding issues, especially in urban areas and
locations with poor drainage.

Temperatures will be just below to near normal Tuesday and
Wednesday, with heat indices overall expected to remain just below
Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A front will approach from the northwest on Thursday, later
stalling over central Georgia and dissipating Saturday.
Southwesterly steering flow paired with moisture ahead of the
front will allow for PWATs over 2.0" area-wide. Steering flow will
shift more southeasterly Friday night as high pressure builds
over the Atlantic. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop
each afternoon, with the highest coverage over north central
Florida where sea breezes interact.

Temperatures will be near normal on Thursday and Friday, rising to
above normal for the weekend, with highs in the the lower to mid
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Lingering stratiform rainfall (VCSH) will impact all TAF sites
this evening with mainly VFR conds, except for some more moderate
rainfall and VCTS at GNV/VQQ until 02Z or so. After 03Z expect
lingering mid/high clouds overnight at VFR levels and since all
TAF sites received rainfall today expect some brief MVFR fog
chances around sunrise with the usual potential for IFR conds at
VQQ but have gone as low as 3SM BR for now. Another active
afternoon expected at all TAF sites on Tuesday and for now have
added in VCTS from 16Z onward with the typical TEMPO from 18-22Z
time frame for gusty winds and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS at all TAF sites
for now as these will likely be refined for timing in later TAF
sites as well. Best chances for IFR conds at TAF sites tomorrow
afternoon will be due to low visibilities from heavy rainfall if
heaviest storms push across the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

High pressure will remain east of the waters through the forecast
period, while a trough of low pressure will approach from the NW during
the latter half of the week. This will maintain a S to SW flow
across the waters this week, with 2-3 ft seas, with daily sea
breezes each afternoon near the coast.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk this afternoon, Low Risk Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  92  75  93 /  50  70  20  60
SSI  78  89  78  93 /  50  70  50  70
JAX  77  92  75  94 /  60  70  50  70
SGJ  76  91  76  92 /  50  70  60  70
GNV  75  89  75  90 /  50  70  30  70
OCF  76  88  75  90 /  50  70  40  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$