531
FXUS62 KJAX 092342
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
742 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Main update to the forecast was to significantly trim back PoPs
through the evening and remove thunderstorm potential for most
areas with the exception of areas in SE GA where outflow
interaction will continue to consume what`s left of the
instability through about 9PM.

Once convection fades off tonight (before midnight), skies will
begin to clear some but remain partly cloudy with multilayer
clouds through the morning as the frontal "tail" of the remnants
of Beryl sag southward toward the region.

This afternoon`s convection brought a welcomed cool-off before
readings scooted back into the 80s. We`re aware it`s a broken-
record forecast, but lows will be mild, muggy again tonight with
mid and upper 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed mainly west of highway
301 over NE FL at noon. The convection will continue to shift to
the east and expand in areal coverage over to the I-95 corridor
and beaches the next couple hours and with another round of
convection firing up into coastal Georgia this late afternoon and
early evening. Small Portions of the Suwannee Valley have
received just shy of 2 inch totals of rain (radar estimated) thus
far and storms progress eastward some additional gully washers of
localized of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts are anticipated due to
slow moving nature of the storms. Gusty winds should remain below
severe levels with the pattern of warm mid level temperatures -5
Celsius keeping mid level lapse rates weak, but some outflows may
deliver wind gusts 45-55 mph as low level flow increases some
today.

Isolated embedded elevated convection is plausible with post
convective stratiform rain through the late evening. During the
overnight hours lingering mid/high clouds overnight. Some
potential patchy fog developing a couple hours before daybreak
particularly in areas that were on the receiving end of today`s
heaviest rainfall.

At the surface, high pressure will continue to hold over west
central and southwest Florida with the surface ridge axis across
south Florida. This will create light onshore west to southwest
flow over the forecast area tonight. This will favor scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along Big Bend and
Florida`s west coast during the pre- dawn hours shifting inland
to the western precipice of Suwannee Valley around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A front sitting across central Georgia Wednesday and Thursday
along with S/SW steering flow will allow for high PWATs across NE
FL and SE GA. On Wednesday, westerly winds will bring in showers
and storms off the Gulf earlier in the day, later moving inland
and interacting with the Atlantic sea breeze, prompting
precipitation potential across the area in the 60-80% range.
Temperatures will be a tad above average Wednesday, with highs
ranging from the lower to upper 90s with heat indices maxing out
at 100-105 degrees.

Thursday, there will be a decent spread in convection coverage,
with isolated to scattered coverage north of I-10, with higher
precipitation potential south of I-10. Temperatures will lower a
few degrees Thursday over NE FL to near normal in the lower to
mid 90s as SE GA heats up more due to less rain coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The front will linger across south-central Georgia, slowly
dissipating through Saturday. Fairly weak southerly flow allowing
both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breezes to push inland each day and
interact, numerous showers and thunderstorms will be able to
develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will
generally reach the lower to mid 90s each day, with lows in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Convection easing off here at 00z with only TSRA possible at KSSI
through around 01z. Elsewhere, showers continue to push west to
east along the I-10 corridor with vicinity showers around Jax
Metro terminal through 02z. Activity will dwindle from there with
nil shower activity by midnight. Other than typical fog at KVQQ, a
VFR mid level cloud deck thickening with a frontal boundary
sagging into the region from the north late tonight.

Southwesterly flow will promote keep the sea breeze pinned
offshore Wednesday and bring an earlier than normal onset of
showers, possibly around 15/16z. Another period, likely 1-2 hours,
of isolated to scattered TSRA will be possible at all airfields
mainly between 17z-21z followed by scattered showers through the
end of the period. Light southwest winds tonight will trend west-
southwest winds and pick up during the mid morning Wednesday,
especially along the I-95 corridor, with peak gusts up to 20
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Surface high pressure ridge axis will extend south and southwest
of the waters this week while a trough of low pressure will
approach from northwest during the latter half of the week. This
will maintain south to southwesterly flow across the waters this
week, with 2-3 ft seas and daily sea breezes each afternoon near
the coast where scattered to numerous showers and T`storms will
develop.

Rip Currents: Offshore light winds will create a low risk for rip
currents at all area beaches again Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  75  92  74 /  70  20  70   0
SSI  90  79  92  78 /  70  20  70  20
JAX  92  75  94  76 /  80  20  80  20
SGJ  91  77  95  77 /  80  10  70  30
GNV  90  74  93  75 /  80  10  60  10
OCF  88  76  92  76 /  90  10  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$