Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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619 FXUS62 KJAX 150017 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 817 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ..Afternoon heat indices in the 105 to 109 degree range Monday... ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Convection is waning across the region with mostly isolated showers north of I-10 and west of highway 301, and will diminish as the evening progresses. The current forecast has this well in hand. The overnight lows will in the mid to upper 70s, with mins near 80 on the First Coach Beaches tomorrow morning. The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough just to the northwest Monday. This pattern will yield a moist and unstable south southwest flow, with convection in the afternoon and early evening hours. Temperatures will trend above normal Monday. Heat indices may be in range of advisory levels again on Monday afternoon with values between 104 to 109 degrees. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf East coast sea breeze is pinned close to the Atlantic coast and with a synoptic westerly flow will only make slow progress inland. Convection is beginning to fire near the Intracoastal waterway and again will more slowly inland. The Gulf sea breeze is making a bit more progress inland and should enhance the squeezing over the Florida Peninsula this afternoon and eventually across inland SE Georgia this evening. Highest chances of precipitation will be over the Ocala/Ocala National forest areas northward into Gainesville. Convection will gradually begin to diminish after sunset, end last over the central Florida peninsula and Marion County. Highs will be in the upper 90s with Heat Index values in the 104-107F range inland and with higher relative humidity along the coast 107-110F. Thus will maintain the Heat Advisory along the coast into the evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The region will be between high pressure to the east, and a trough just to the northwest this period. This pattern will yield a moist and unstable south southwest flow, with convection in the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will trend above normal. Heat indices may be in range of advisory levels again on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 High pressure will be centered to the east through Friday, as a persistent trough lingers to the northwest. This pattern will yield a south southwest flow. This flow will yield a moist and unstable airmass, with diurnal convection expected. Convection will initiate on the Gulf sea breeze, then spread across the area through the afternoon hours. Temperatures will trend a little above normal. The high will build more toward the east northeast on over the weekend. With this pattern the flow will be more from the south. This will produce diurnal convection, with temperatures running a little above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 735 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Post convective environment has left some very isolated showers north of I-10 and west of highway 301 this evening with none of the terminals on the receiving end of precipitation this evening. VFR conditions are anticipated through most of the nocturnal hours with the exception being VQQ which is forecast to drop to about 4sm in mist and stratiform clouds. Southeast winds this early evening will give way to diminishing winds by mid evening through the rest of the night. Convection will generate around the Suwannee Valley between 12z and 14z and slowly spread inland during the morning hours with best convergence near the FL/GA border between 18z and 22z Monday. Main TEMPOs period for convection will be between 19z and 21z for area terminals. It looks like east coast sea breeze moves inland zipping with west coast sea breeze near I-95. Looks like convection will diminish between 22z and 00z Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 201 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The Bermuda-Azores High axis will be centered across the central Florida peninsula with a synoptic southwesterly to westerly flow pattern through mid-week. The flow pattern will be broken during the late afternoon and evening hours with a southerly to southeasterly flow as the sea breeze develops. Nocturnal wind surges around the western periphery of the ridge could briefly reach Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria during the overnight hours but again only for a short period. Isolated convection during the daylight hours with widely scattered nocturnal convection. Rip Currents: Will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents through tomorrow at area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 97 75 97 75 / 20 30 60 20 SSI 93 79 94 79 / 20 10 50 30 JAX 96 76 96 76 / 30 20 70 20 SGJ 93 77 94 76 / 30 10 70 20 GNV 94 74 93 74 / 80 30 80 10 OCF 94 75 94 75 / 80 40 90 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$