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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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452 FXUS62 KJAX 180704 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 304 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Any lingering convection over interior southeast GA has fizzled over the past couple hours, with just some occasional leftover debris clouds and a seasonably mild night tonight. A cold front currently draped across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valley area will make some pretty quick progress southward through the rest of today ahead of its parent upper trough, both of which will quickly start to lose momentum and stall north of the area by tonight. This will push the surface ridge overhead a bit further south and east, but also strengthen the mostly uniform flow aloft slightly as well. The main "take home" with all of this will be a similar regime as seen over the past few days with a stacked southwest flow, earlier onset to convective timing, and a sea breeze pinned around the I-95 to the coast vicinity. The slightly stronger flow aloft will certainly keep the threat for some strong storms across the area, especially as convection from earlier in the day collides with the Atlantic sea breeze during the afternoon. Wet downbursts in the 40-55mph range will be the primary hazard, and an isolated severe storm also quite possible. Temperatures are also expected to be similar to those seen on Wednesday. The warmer southwesterly flow will be slightly offset by the earlier start to convection and overspreading cloud cover for many, resulting in highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. Though depending on timing and coverage, some areas could under or over achieve. Similar to Wednesday, some showers and t`storms may linger over interior southeast GA into the start of the overnight hours tonight closer to the frontal zone mentioned above. Otherwise, just some leftover clouds with lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Predominant southwesterly steering flow that has been locked in across the region through the majority of the week will shift and prevail out of the south through Saturday as ridging rebuilds to the east. Though there will be pockets off "drier" air (PWATs < 2"), for the most part abundant moisture will be available and fuel scattered convection along the sea breezes, with coverage blossoming inland as sea breezes merge. Due to outflow and and other mesoscale boundary interactions, it`s tough to discern where exactly the merger and stronger convection potential will be. That said, placing the potential for widespread showers and a few strong pulses roughly between the Highway 301 and I-95 corridors on Friday. As flow shifts a bit more southerly by Saturday, the merger should occur more inland, generally between Highway 301 and I-75. As has been the case with this moist airmass, concerns with convection will be localized to areas flooding, particularly in urban locations or where the grounds are still soaking in rain from the last couple of days. Frequent lightning and gusty outflow winds are also possible with deeper pulses, likely along the sea breeze collision zone. Before convective cooling occurs, temperatures will push into the low 90s each day with the highest heat index readings near the coast up to 105-108F. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The seasonably active thunderstorm period continues through Sunday with a more progressive Atlantic sea breeze amid southeasterly flow. Appears that an inverted shortwave or two will rotate around the western extent of the stacked Bermuda ridge next week; these features may serve to enhance storm chances further Monday and possibly Tuesday, though it will depend on how fast and where they track. Available moisture will retreat some toward the middle of next week, potentially in the wake region of the aforementioned shortwaves, and this may limit storm coverage during the middle part of next week. Temperatures will trend near to above normal with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 No significant changes to the forecast since the previous package. VFR is expected to prevail at all sites through at least the morning hours, with only periods of MVFR BR possible at VQQ through the next 3-6 hours. Similar type of setup for convection expected today, with scattered to numerous activity moving from west to east towards the pinned seabreeze near the coast. Best chances for strong TSRA will be for terminals east of GNV as activity reaches the Atlantic sea breeze. Magnitude and timing of TSRA impacts to be ironed out later today with TEMPO groups. && .MARINE... Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The axis of Atlantic ridging will continue to extend westward across the northeast Florida waters through Thursday, creating a prevailing southerly wind flow across our local waters. Winds will become onshore during the early afternoon hours on Thursday as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Showers and thunderstorms will approach from the west, possibly impacting the near shore waters by the mid to late afternoon hours on Thursday. A frontal boundary will then sink southward across the southeastern states on Friday, with this feature stalling well to the northwest of our local waters during the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage throughout our local waters during the weekend and early next week before the axis of Atlantic ridging lifts northward, placing our local waters within a prevailing southeasterly wind flow towards the middle portion of next week. Rip Currents: Developing onshore winds during the early afternoon hours will combine with a persistent east southeasterly ocean swell to create a lower-end moderate risk at all area beaches through at least Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 95 73 / 60 40 70 40 SSI 92 79 93 79 / 60 40 50 40 JAX 95 75 95 76 / 70 30 70 30 SGJ 93 77 93 77 / 60 30 50 20 GNV 92 74 93 73 / 70 20 80 20 OCF 93 74 93 75 / 70 20 80 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$