640
FXUS64 KJAN 141133 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
633 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Another warm and humid day is on tap, with a few minor forecast
challenges. A shortwave mid/upper trough is draped from the Ohio
Valley southwestward into Texas. Deep layer moisture remains
plentiful ahead of this feature and over much of our area. A band
of mid and high clouds extends from east TX through northwest MS,
and the latest guidance suggests these could persist well into
the day, with potential implications on high temps/heat indices
and destabilization. With diurnal instability more likely to be
focused southeast of this cloud deck, highest rain chances are
expected to be across south/east MS later this afternoon into
early evening, with convection diminishing by mid-evening.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the southern half of
the area for today. With more clouds and somewhat lower max temps
expected over western portions of the area, some portions of the
advisory were removed. But Clarke Co was added in east MS. /DL/

Monday through the weekend...

Our area will remain under the influence of high pressure through
mid week. Temps aloft will support surface temps in the mid to
upper 90s, along with SW flow regime holding dewpoints in the mid
70s. Resulting heat indices should be around 105, but there is
potential for higher heat indices Tuesday and Wednesday with
greater moisture, but with daily afternoon convection, confidence
at this time is low.

By Thursday, a strong mid level high situated over the western
CONUS will drive a midlevel trough and associated surface cold
front south into our area. Ahead of this front, we will have to
watch for heat concerns, especially further south due to moisture
pooling and compressional heating. Rain and storms associated with
the front should begin to push south across the area early
Thursday morning, reaching the Pine Belt by afternoon and evening.
It is here where the front looks to stall out. In the wake of the
front, drier air in the northwest should limit rain chances
Friday. Cooler temps will provide relief from the heat. Some may
call it a midsummer treat, but look for below normal temps for
most areas Friday with highs only in the 80s. Yes, you hear that
right. Temperatures will slowly warm into the weekend, but should
remain near or slightly below normal.

By the weekend, moisture gradually builds back north amid SW
flow. The stalled boundary in the Pine Belt could serve as a focus
area for flash flood potential with PWAT around 2 inches and
boundary parallel flow. Corfidi vector ridge is also evident.
Obviously, this is far out at this time, but should trends hold,
messaging may eventually be introduced./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail at most sites this morning with a broken to
overcast deck of high clouds across most areas except southeast MS.
Patchy fog may result in brief categorical reductions around
daybreak this morning and again on Monday morning, but it is not
expected to last for very long. This afternoon through early this
evening, scattered SHRA and TS may result in brief reductions and
gusty winds. Otherwise, winds will be light outside of
convection. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  75  94  75 /  50  30  60  10
Meridian      98  73  96  74 /  60  40  70  20
Vicksburg     93  75  95  75 /  40  20  30  10
Hattiesburg   97  75  96  76 /  70  30  70  10
Natchez       93  74  93  75 /  50  20  40  10
Greenville    93  75  95  76 /  20  10  20  10
Greenwood     93  75  95  75 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ047>049-053>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ016-025-026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SAS