708
FXUS64 KJAN 091531
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1031 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1031 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Morning Update...

GOES-16 visible satellite show the remnants of TC Beryl, embedded
within a mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi Valley,
tracking northward. At the same time, current radar scans show a
line of scattered showers and storms tracking east across the area
this morning. The convection associated with these bands of precip
have been relatively low due to the north-south orientation of these
storms along with the strong gradient winds associated. Except
some low end pop chances across most of central MS through this
morning (30-45%), with slightly higher rain chances (around 65%)
across the Pine Belt. Rainfall amounts could get between 0.10 -
0.25in across the area with locally higher amounts possible. Later
in the afternoon, relatively dry air will begin to wrap around
the remnants of TC Beryl clearing convective potential from west
to east across our forecast area. Areas west of I-55 will see
afternoon highs peak in the mid to upper 80s. Meanwhile, areas
east of I-55 will see daytime highs peak in the low 90s. A limited
wind threat will continue through this afternoon for portions of
northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS with wind gusts in
the 30 to 40 mph range possible. /CR/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Today through Tonight: The remnants of TC Beryl embedded within a
mid-level trough across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will be the
main weather influence today as the system continues to track
northward. Currently bands of precip have moved across the MS river
as it continues its track eastward across the area. These bands
don`t have much associated precip with the north south orientation
and it being a generally fast moving system with strong gradient
winds associated. Expect area wide pop chances with between 0.10-
0.25in of accumulated rainfall with possibilities for locally higher
amounts throughout the day. Behind the intial band of showers will
be a dry slot as relatively dry air wraps around TC Beryl clearing
convective potential from west to east throughout the day.

A limited wind threat will continue through this afternoon for
portions of northeast LA, southeast AR and northwest MS as wind
gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible, which could result
in downed limbs or even weak trees.

As to heat potential, the limited threat has been removed from the
graphical HWO. Strong gradient winds, increased cloud cover and
precip will combine to limit heating across the CWA. Heat indices
will struggle to reach heat thresholds of 105 degrees and if
achieved won`t be prolonged for more than an hour or two. /KP/

Wednesday through Monday: Come Wednesday morning the remnants of
Beryl will be well to our northeast and a drier airmass along with
lower heights will be over most of our CWA. The exception will be
our southeast where a stalled boundary along with PWATs in excess of
two inches will still reside. This moisture will lead to a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Most sites
will top out in the lower 90s which is near normal. The drier
airmass and near normal highs will result in peak heat index values
below 105F so wl see a little reprieve from the recent heat wave.
Upper level troughing will swing east across the region Thursday
into Friday while a surface high centered north of our CWA shifts
east as well. This will serve to limit return moisture and keep the
low chance for afternoon convection limited to our southern zones.
Friday through the weekend the stout mid level ridge to our west
will gradually spread east while surface ridging reestablishes
itself along the Gulf coast from the east. A warming trend with
gradually increasing deep moisture will be the result. This will
lead to a greater coverage of diurnally driven convection but also
higher peak index values. A Heat Advisory at least for the western
portions of the CWA is likely again by Sunday. This Heat Advisory
will likely be expanded Monday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A mix of MVFR/VFR cigs along with isold SHRA wl prevail through
the afternoon with VFR conditions expected after 01Z Wed. A gusty
sw-s wind 20-25kts wl develop this morning with the strongest wind
across the nw. These gusty winds will last through the aftn before
subsiding this evening. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  70  91  71 /  60  10  10   0
Meridian      93  70  92  70 /  60  20  10   0
Vicksburg     88  70  91  70 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   92  74  93  72 /  70  30  20  10
Natchez       89  71  91  71 /  20   0  10   0
Greenville    85  69  90  70 /  20  10   0   0
Greenwood     89  68  90  69 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/22/22