Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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768 FXUS64 KJAN 141955 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Now through Tonight...Isolated to scattered showers and storms will persist across mainly eastern and southeast portions of the area this afternoon and into early this evening. While a stray shower can`t be ruled out overnight, the majority of this convection will begin dissipating after sunset as daytime heating wanes. Once convection dies down this evening, an overall quiet night is expected across the area. Mid/upper level troughing will sit in place across the region tonight. This will allow for some mid and high clouds to persist over the CWA once again. With the muggy conditions continuing, look for lows early Monday morning to fall into the middle 70s. /19/ Monday through next Sunday: An upper-level trough will remain over the central Gulf Coast region tomorrow, however with the axis shifting slightly eastward, best POPs and lowest heights will also shift a little eastward compared to today. With that, an expanded influence of upper-level ridging to the west should boost temps a few degrees across northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS compared to today. Expect the focus for 105+ type heat indices to focus west of I-55, but most of the area could get near 105 or so if rain holds off long enough into the day. Have reconfigured the area covered by a Heat Advisory to focus west for tomorrow afternoon. The upper-level trough axis/weakness in the ridge never truly clears out of the central Gulf Coast region through the end of this week, so afternoon convection and increased cloud cover will continue to challenge peak heating potential. If convection should hold off any afternoon, there is the potential for dangerous heat to be a concern. Will continue to advertise the Elevated risk out through the middle of this week. A shortwave deepening the trough will usher a cold front into the region around Thursday time frame. This could cause Wednesday afternoon to be hot just ahead of the front, with relief and higher POPS areawide on Thursday as it moves through. The upper-level trough is expected to consolidate and refocus over the Central Plains over the weekend, keeping temps cooler and POPs higher across our region. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered convection could result in a brief degradation of flight categories to MVFR/IFR status between now and 01Z this evening, namely at KMEI, KHBG, & KPIB. This activity will quickly begin to dissipate after sunset this evening. Winds this afternoon will have a westerly component between 5-8 knots and will become calm to light this evening into tonight. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 93 76 96 / 20 40 10 40 Meridian 73 92 74 97 / 30 50 20 60 Vicksburg 75 94 76 96 / 20 30 10 20 Hattiesburg 76 94 76 96 / 30 60 10 60 Natchez 74 94 75 95 / 10 40 10 20 Greenville 75 94 76 96 / 10 20 10 10 Greenwood 75 94 75 96 / 10 30 10 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019- 025>027-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ047>049-053>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ016-025-026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075. && $$ 19/NF/19