Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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315 FXUS64 KJAN 151131 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Through tonight: A shortwave trough axis will continue to extend from the Ohio Valley through the ArkLaTex today, with plentiful deep layer moisture ahead of it across much of our area. This has helped instigate some stray storms early the morning over north central MS. However, most convection will hold off until this afternoon when more plentiful instability is available. Similar to this past weekend, storms may persist into the early evening before finally diminishing. And based on the position of the upper trough, rain chances will be higher the farther south and east you go in the area, with the lowest rain chances in southeast AR and the ArkLaMiss Delta where moisture will be somewhat less. As we`ve seen over the past couple days, we can`t rule out a brief stronger storm or two simply owing to strong summer daytime instability. It will be warm and humid again today, with heat indices again in the triple digits areawide. We have expanded the Heat Advisory for today to include parts of east and southeast MS. HIs may be more marginal in northeast MS, at least today. Still, even there it will be muggy and unpleasant away from any relief from rain. /DL/ Tuesday through next Monday... The period begins with a broad high pressure stretching across the Southern Plains region, while an upper trough begins to extend southwards into the Ozarks/TN River Valley. Low level heights will continue to maximize across the southeast Tuesday through Wednesday as a low level ridge builds into the region ahead of the next system. Westerly flow will promote dangerous heat potential through mid-week as temperatures in the upper 90s and heat indices ranging 105-115 degrees persist. Precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from isolated to scattered, mainly in the E/SE portions of MS. By Thursday, the ridge will break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bring increased potentials for scattered to numerous showers and storms, along with more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATS will be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches at times. The potential for flash flooding will continue to be monitored for this weekend. By Sunday, low level ridging will begin to build in from the southeast, which will allow temperatures to begin to increase into the work week. Hills will range in the lower to middle 90s through Monday, with heat indices reaching up to 105 for areas in the southern portions of the CWA. Rain chances will remain scattered to numerous, as a frontal boundary hangs up near the Gulf Coast. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning. Brief fog cannot be ruled out through shortly after sunrise, but is not probable enough to mention in the TAF. The same will be possible around daybreak Tuesday morning. Scattered SHRA and TS with brief wind gusts are possible this afternoon into early evening, diminishing overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light wind. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 95 75 96 76 / 40 10 40 10 Meridian 95 74 97 75 / 50 20 60 10 Vicksburg 95 75 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 Hattiesburg 96 76 96 77 / 50 20 50 10 Natchez 94 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 0 Greenville 95 76 97 78 / 20 10 10 0 Greenwood 95 76 97 77 / 20 10 20 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DL/AJ