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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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761 FXUS64 KJAN 171515 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1015 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1015 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 No changes have been made to the forecast package for this morning. Low-level heights will maximize across the southeast region today as global model guidance continues to show a weak upper level trough approaching the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will allow for low level W/SW flow to intensify across our forecast area causing PWATs to increase to -2.5 inches across the ArkLaMiss into the Gulf Coast region. Current radar scans continue to show a decaying MCS moving E/SE out of Arkansas and will bring showers and storms into the CWA later this afternoon. Although severe weather is not expected, areas in the northwest MS/AR Delta region could have the potential to experience some strong storms today. A few of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall at times which could lead to isolated flash flooding potential across the Delta region through this afternoon. Heat will once again be the main headline for today with afternoon highs peaking in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices are expected to range in the 105-110 deg range, however if the rain comes in early, the probabilities for long term heat stress will decrease through the afternoon. At the moment, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire forecast area until 8 PM this evening. No changes have been made to the "Elevated" heat graphic where the advisory is in effect. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today and tonight... Low level heights will maximize across the region today as weak upper trough approaches the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Low level W/SW flow will continue to intensify, which in return will increase PWATs to ~2.5 inches across ArKLaMiss into the Gulf Coast region. By late morning, a decaying MCS moving E/SE out of Arkansas will bring showers and storms into the CWA. Although severe weather is not expected, areas in the northwest MS/AR Delta region have the potential to experience locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding potential through the late morning/afternoon. The main headline will continue to be heat, with high temperatures expected to maximize in the middle to upper 90s. Heat indices are expected to range from 105-110 however if precipitation is early onset, the probabilities for long term heat stress will decrease through the afternoon. A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 10am - 8pm. By the evening into the overnight areas, isolated to scattered precipitation is expected to continue, especially north of I-20 as a frontal boundary approaches from the north. Expect rain chances to increase overnight into Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will range in the lower 70s. /AJ/ Thursday through next Wednesday... By Thursday, the upper ridge is expected to fully break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Showers and storm potential will increase Thursday morning into the afternoon hours as the front stalls across the CWA. As the front stalls across MS and subtly moves towards the coast through the weekend, PWATS will be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches at times. The potential for flash flooding will continue to be monitored for this weekend, especially for areas in the Pine Belt region. By Sunday into the new work week, low level ridging will begin to build in from the southeast, which will allow temperatures to begin to increase into the work week. Highs will range in the lower to middle 90s through Monday, with heat indices reaching up to 105 for areas in the southern portions of the CWA. Rain chances will remain scattered to numerous, as a frontal boundary hangs up near the Gulf Coast and looks to keep a fairly moist, tropical-like layer across the south through Wednesday. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions prevail across the area this morning. Afternoon SHRA and TS will be possible again mainly this afternoon, which may result in brief categorical reductions and gusty wind. Coverage of SHRA and TS is expected to increase tonight, especially over the northern portion of the area around GLH/GWO, as a cold front approaches the region. In addition, MVFR or potentially IFR ceilings are expected to develop in these areas through early Thursday morning. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 96 74 91 71 / 30 50 90 50 Meridian 96 72 93 70 / 40 50 90 70 Vicksburg 96 74 90 71 / 20 40 80 40 Hattiesburg 96 75 93 74 / 50 30 100 70 Natchez 94 73 90 71 / 30 40 90 60 Greenville 95 72 88 69 / 30 70 60 20 Greenwood 95 72 89 69 / 20 70 70 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/AJ/AJ