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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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015 FXUS64 KJAN 171914 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Afternoon global guidance highlights a 1023mb sfc high across the Northern Plains making its way east towards the Ohio Valley Region tonight. This will allow for a trough axis to sink into the southeast region from the north. Rain/storm chances will begin to increase across central MS heading into the overnight period as the aforementioned trough sinks further south. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog potential south of I-20 later in the overnight period. The combination of increasing cloud cover and mid to high PoP chances (between 40-65%) will cause nighttime temperatures to drop in the low 70s across our CWA. Heading into Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to fully break down as a broad trough dips southward, bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Showers and storms increase Thursday morning and afternoon hours as the frontal boundary stalls across our forecast area. Areas south of I-20 will likely see heat indices between 105-108 degrees, due to compressional heating and moisture pooling ahead of the front. Because of this, we went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for portions of south MS and portions of northeast LA. The advisory will go in effect starting around 10 AM Thursday morning to 7 PM Thursday evening. A "Limited" threat for increasing heat stress has been introduced in our HWO for these areas, especially where the Heat Advisory is in effect. /CR/ Thursday night through mid next week... The long term period will be dominated by a slightly cooler and wetter regime with persistent southwest flow. A strong midlevel high over the western CONUS will drive a midlevel trough and associated surface cold front south into our area. Thursday night into Friday, this front stalls out in the vicinity of the Pine Belt and will serve as the main focus for locally heavier rainfall through the period. Boundary parallel flow and PWATs in excess of 2 inches will favor training storms with efficient rain rates. While beneficial in light of recent dry conditions, this could potentially lead to some localized flash flooding in this area, especially given the persistence through the period. However, with the dry conditions and potential for rain to be spread out over time, confidence in a greater flash flood scenario is low at this time. Temperatures in the wake of the front with be around 3 to 5 degrees below normal (85- 90), which will be a welcome relief for many. Early next week building high pressure to the southeast will push moist Gulf air back north towards the I-20 corridor. Temperatures warm slightly and rain will become more numerous across the area. A persistent barrage of rain is likely to continue through the period with current estimated totals between 2 to 4 inches. Conditions will continue to be monitored, so check back on future forecasts for updates./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Current local radar scans show some scattered showers and storms across east/southeast MS. Rain chances will continue through the TAF period which may result in brief categorical reductions and gusty winds at a couple of TAF sites. SHRA and TS coverage will increase tonight starting around 05Z Thursday especially over the northern portions of the area around GLH/GWO, as a cold front approaches the region. MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible in these areas through early Thursday morning. Storm chances will continue to increase across the region by 19Z Thursday which could lead to MVFR/IFR conditions across central MS. Coverage of SHRA and TS will continue through Thursday evening as the cold front digs further south. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 74 91 71 83 / 50 90 70 80 Meridian 73 93 70 83 / 40 90 70 80 Vicksburg 73 89 71 84 / 40 80 70 70 Hattiesburg 75 93 73 87 / 30 90 70 90 Natchez 73 91 71 83 / 30 80 70 80 Greenville 72 85 70 84 / 80 80 40 40 Greenwood 72 88 70 85 / 70 80 50 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ053>055- 059>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ024>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/SAS20/CR