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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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786 FXUS64 KJAN 210226 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 926 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 921 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are occuring generally from Clark southwest to Marion County this evening along a weak frontal boundary. Some of the rain has been on the heavier side with around 2-4 inches falling in some locations. A flash flood warning was issued for Marion County where some of the heaviest rain has fallen. Hi-res model suggest that these storms will weaken through the evening hours, but showers and possibly a thunderstorm will continue to be possible into the overnight hours mainly over these same areas. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to low 70s./15/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow...An upper trough remains situated across the central part of the country with the eastern periphery serving to reduce upper heights in our area. This combined with a remnant cold frontal boundary is supporting scattered showers and storms that again will likely linger into tonight. With a continued lack of adequate deep layer shear, organized severe storms are not expected. With substantial deep layer moisture (PW AOA 2") and relatively light flow, storms could produce bouts of locally heavy rain of 1-3" in short period of time. A similar pattern continues into tomorrow with scattered afternoon into overnight storms carrying similar hazards, mostly for localized heavy rains. For this reason, localized flash flooding will be possible tonight as well as into tomorrow, where the most favored areas for brief, mostly urban flooding will be general along and southeast of the Natchez Trace. Lows tonight fall into the lower 70s F with highs tomorrow not dissimilar from what we`ve seen today, topping out in the upper 80s F to near 90 F areawide. Patchy fog and low clouds will be possible, particularly around dawn. /86/ Sunday night through Saturday. Rainy conditions continue through the extended with showers and thunderstorms expected nearly everyday. Cloudy skies and rain will keep afternoon temperatures a little cooler, but a steady flow of moisture will maintain muggy conditions. Ridging to the east and west will keep deep moisture flowing into the region. Southwesterly to southerly winds are bringing in Pacific and Gulf moisture. The environment across the region is more tropical like, where PW values were around 2 inches. Scattered to numerous showers will continue where periods of heavy rain are likely. Radar estimates this morning showed 3-4 inches of rain fell over Lauderdale, Kemper and a portion of northern Clarke mostly overnight. Several inches of rain fell late last week with total estimates showing values near 7 inches in a few locations. Heavy downpours, especially in thunderstorms will be more efficient and may produce rounds of rain where several inches may fall. Training storms along with heavy rain may lead to localized flooding. A limited risk area for flash flooding will continue for the southeastern zones through the weekend. The entire area may need to be included by mid week. Models show a nearly stalled/slow moving boundary settled generally along the Natchez Trace by tomorrow night. Several waves are expected to develop and move along the boundary over the next few days providing support for convection. The boundary/trough axis hangs over the area going into next weekend. A ridge builds into the Gulf and the boundary slowly moves north Friday/Saturday. Warm advection continues with the Bermuda well planted and showers/thunderstorms remain likely through next weekend. Cloudy skies and rain will keep afternoon temperatures down a couple degrees, but highs for much of the area will be near 90. Overnight lows will be in the lower to mid 70s. No big changes expected for the next 7 days. The area will continue to be monitored for flash flood potential. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 All TAF sites are VFR this evening and expect these conditions to continue through the period. Some brief reduction in visibility will be possible with a passing shower, but overall VFR conditions will prevail./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 89 73 90 72 / 40 20 60 40 Meridian 89 71 89 70 / 80 40 70 50 Vicksburg 89 71 91 72 / 10 10 50 40 Hattiesburg 91 73 89 72 / 60 70 90 50 Natchez 89 72 88 72 / 20 20 70 50 Greenville 88 69 90 72 / 10 0 10 20 Greenwood 89 70 91 71 / 30 10 20 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/