015
FXUS64 KJAN 171914
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
214 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Afternoon global guidance highlights a 1023mb sfc high across the
Northern Plains making its way east towards the Ohio Valley Region
tonight. This will allow for a trough axis to sink into the
southeast region from the north. Rain/storm chances will begin to
increase across central MS heading into the overnight period as the
aforementioned trough sinks further south. HREF guidance is hinting
at some fog potential south of I-20 later in the overnight period.
The combination of increasing cloud cover and mid to high PoP
chances (between 40-65%) will cause nighttime temperatures to drop
in the low 70s across our CWA. Heading into Thursday, the upper
ridge will begin to fully break down as a broad trough dips
southward, bringing a frontal boundary into the region. Showers and
storms increase Thursday morning and afternoon hours as the frontal
boundary stalls across our forecast area. Areas south of I-20 will
likely see heat indices between 105-108 degrees, due to
compressional heating and moisture pooling ahead of the front.
Because of this, we went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for
portions of south MS and portions of northeast LA. The advisory will
go in effect starting around 10 AM Thursday morning to 7 PM Thursday
evening. A "Limited" threat for increasing heat stress has been
introduced in our HWO for these areas, especially where the Heat
Advisory is in effect. /CR/

Thursday night through mid next week...

The long term period will be dominated by a slightly cooler and
wetter regime with persistent southwest flow. A strong midlevel high
over the western CONUS will drive a midlevel trough and associated
surface cold front south into our area. Thursday night into Friday,
this front stalls out in the vicinity of the Pine Belt and will
serve as the main focus for locally heavier rainfall through the
period. Boundary parallel flow and PWATs in excess of 2 inches will
favor training storms with efficient rain rates. While beneficial in
light of recent dry conditions, this could potentially lead to some
localized flash flooding in this area, especially given the
persistence through the period. However, with the dry conditions
and potential for rain to be spread out over time, confidence in a
greater flash flood scenario is low at this time. Temperatures in
the wake of the front with be around 3 to 5 degrees below normal
(85- 90), which will be a welcome relief for many. Early next week
building high pressure to the southeast will push moist Gulf air
back north towards the I-20 corridor. Temperatures warm slightly
and rain will become more numerous across the area. A persistent
barrage of rain is likely to continue through the period with
current estimated totals between 2 to 4 inches. Conditions will
continue to be monitored, so check back on future forecasts for
updates./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Current local radar scans show some scattered showers and storms
across east/southeast MS. Rain chances will continue through the TAF
period which may result in brief categorical reductions and gusty
winds at a couple of TAF sites. SHRA and TS coverage will increase
tonight starting around 05Z Thursday especially over the northern
portions of the area around GLH/GWO, as a cold front approaches the
region. MVFR/IFR ceilings will be possible in these areas through
early Thursday morning. Storm chances will continue to increase
across the region by 19Z Thursday which could lead to MVFR/IFR
conditions across central MS. Coverage of SHRA and TS will continue
through Thursday evening as the cold front digs further south. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  71  83 /  50  90  70  80
Meridian      73  93  70  83 /  40  90  70  80
Vicksburg     73  89  71  84 /  40  80  70  70
Hattiesburg   75  93  73  87 /  30  90  70  90
Natchez       73  91  71  83 /  30  80  70  80
Greenville    72  85  70  84 /  80  80  40  40
Greenwood     72  88  70  85 /  70  80  50  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ053>055-
     059>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/SAS20/CR