Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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511 FXUS63 KIWX 201006 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 606 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Dry conditions are expected through Monday afternoon. High temperatures will range from 75 to 85 degrees through the week. Lows will be in the 60s. -There are daily chances for showers and thunderstorms next week, with the best potential Wednesday into Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 High pressure keeps us dry with partly to mostly clear skies through Monday afternoon, when a deepening upper level trough drops into the Great Lakes region (Monday afternoon/Tue). This will bring us nearly daily 20-50 percent chances for showers and storms through much of next week as it meanders slowly across the Great Lakes region. Highs will range from 75 to 85 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s and 60s. For the most part kept the consensus pops for now during the long term period. Per the ECMWF, the incoming trough may deepen into an upper low by Thursday/Friday before it moves eastward into the lower Great Lakes for Friday night-Saturday. The GFS is weaker and more broad with the trough than the ECMWF, and is (as usual) more progressive. However, both models seem to agree today that Wed afternoon into Thu appear to be our best shot for precipitation-so kept the 40-55 percent chances we had going on those days (slightly lower than last night, around 60 percent). In the wake of the trough is a broad upper level ridge that builds into the midwest/Upper Great Lakes by Friday (or Friday evening depending on the model), with the ECMWF more amplified than the GFS. Because of this it suppresses any convection from Friday into next Sunday. The GFS has a weaker ridge and has a stronger mid level trough develop over the central plains by Friday, which kicks off a surface system that lifts northeast into our area for Saturday. Confidence is low to medium at this point. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 606 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Outside of some diurnal cumulus and higher clouds, VFR conditions expected through this TAF period with high pressure in place over the region. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MCD AVIATION...Andersen