Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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965 FXUS63 KIWX 161652 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 1252 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * There are low chances (20-30%) for a few showers and storms today into Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected. * Dry weather, seasonable temperatures and lower humidity midweek through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Mature MCV now into southeast MI has forced an active trailing composite outflow boundary south into central IN/IL. This will likely remain the focus for more additional activity today into tonight, though will have to monitor for widely scattered convection to redevelop locally as moderate diurnal instability takes place on the northern fringe of the stable bubble and incoming synoptic cold front. Shear and instability parameters do not support organized severe convection. Dry and seasonably humid otherwise today. An upper level trough will amplify southeast through the Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night with low chances for a few additional showers along the associated synoptic cold front. A low level anticyclone then follows in behind this front through this weekend with comfortable humidity and dry conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Stratus persists across KSBN, though some breaks are noted. More is noted upstream and have therefore opted for a dominant period of stratus for the remainder of the daylight hours. Isolated thunderstorms remain in the cards through early tonight, though confidence in storms occurring at the terminals is medium at best. Given the location of the cold front and the ongoing stratus at KSBN, thunderstorms there seem unlikely. At KFWA, however, CAMs remain steadfast in storms developing west of there and drifting east. An additional batch of storms is probable thereafter, but the overall envrionment is questionable. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Steinwedel AVIATION...Brown