510
FXUS63 KIWX 221054
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
654 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday
  afternoon, but overall hit and miss coverage.

- Cold front brings heavy rain and chance for a few stronger
  storms on Wednesday.

- Cool and dry conditions to round out the work week; warmer for
  the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave pushing
through Central Illinois. Radar trends show resultant convection
moving northeastward across Central Indiana, expected to make
it into the southern part of our CWA before 3am. 00Z HREF
indicates this rainfall will be moving into an area of little to
no instability, which should limit any lightning potential at
least through daybreak. With the addition of daytime heating,
cannot completely rule out a rumble of thunder during the AM
hours as it moves NE, especially in portions of NW Ohio. During
the afternoon hours and early evening hours, additional isolated
showers and storms appear with isolated wording maintained (up
to 20% PoPs). Highs will be in the low 80s.

Broad troughing on Tuesday with an upper level perturbation
helping to fire off more showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon hours courtesy of weak buoyancy. Wednesday, we will
have a surface cold front push through the region. Forecast
soundings suggest moderate CAPE will be in place out ahead of
this frontal boundary. Unidirectional westerly flow, close to
being parallel to the surface boundary, will promote training
and a marginal risk for flooding (annotated by WPC`s Day 4
excessive rainfall outlook). Bulk shear hovering around the
25-30kt range means we can`t rule out some marginally severe
thunderstorms with the more robust updrafts, but stay tuned for
further updates.

On the backside of this cold front, look for a few days of
pleasant temperatures and humidity with high temperatures in the
upper 70s and dry conditions. Ridging begins to work its way
back into the region by the weekend with temps slowly climbing
back up into mid 80s. Models really begin to diverge by early
next week, but will ride the blends for now which maintain
slight chances on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

VFR conditions outside of Tuesday morning patchy fog that may
drop vsbys to IFR category. Did opt to remove mention of
thunder from KFWA today but an isolated shower/t-storm this
afternoon is not totally impossible.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Norman
AVIATION...Andersen