410
FXUS63 KIND 070945
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
545 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Sunny and warmer Today
- Mostly Clear Tonight
- Increasing confidence in impacts from Beryl Tuesday night into
  Wednesday with potential for heavy rain and gusty winds

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Surface analysis early this morning shows a strong and large area of
high pressure centered over Indiana, OH and KY. This strong high
extended its influence northeast to New England and southwest to
Arkansas and eastern TX.  Water vapor imagery showed a broad trough
in place across the CONUS, with a stream of subsidence stretching
from the American southwest to Indiana and the eastern Great Lakes.
An upper low was found over western MN.  GOES16 shows mostly clear
skies over Indiana, but some high cloud was found near the Ohio
River.

Today and Tonight...

Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. The large high over
Indiana is expected to push farther east to the east coast, allowing
for warmer, southerly return flow to become predominate across
Central Indiana. Meanwhile the pattern aloft is expected to remain
relatively unchanged, although the trough axis over the plains is
expected to deepen. This will still keep southwest flow in place
across Central Indiana today and tonight with subsidence in play.
Forecast soundings once again today suggest convective temperatures
will be reached leading to some scattered diurnal CU. Thus a mostly
sunny day is expected. Given the warm air advection, highs today
will be a bit warmer, reaching the middle and upper 80s.

Clear skies will be expected again tonight as forecast soundings
continue to show a dry column under the influence of the high
pressure system to the east and subsidence aloft. After heating is
lost, diurnal CU will be lost leading to mostly clear skies with
lows in the middle to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Monday and Tuesday.

The warming trend will continue into Monday as the broad high
pressure that had been in place through the early weekend gradually
begins to break down ahead of the next rain producing system. Plenty
of sun combined  will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid to
upper 80s.  With the high pressure nearly overhead, there will be
little relief in terms of a breeze with near calm winds. There
should be at least some diurnal cu during the mid to late afternoon
hours which may provide some relief but with dewpoints only in the
mid 60s, the overall heat threat is minimal.

A broad trough will slowly exit the Central Plains late Monday night
but the 00Z model guidance has held onto the trends that began with
the 12Z runs in keeping this system more across the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes Region with the approaching remnants of Beryl
preventing the more progressive motion than had been previously
expected.

Wednesday Through Saturday.

Focus after Tuesday will be on tropical moisture from the remnants
of Hurricane  Beryl.  As previously mentioned, models have been
trending a more northerly track for the hurricane with a fairly
substantial northerly push compared to how things looked 24 hours
ago. There is currently quite good model agreement in the track and
timing of the remnants with central Indiana well within the
potential bullseye for the heaviest rain. As the remnants get
ingested into the upper level jet, it will begin to act more like a
stereotypical upper level low with the heaviest rain to the
northwest of the surface low where a tight band of frontogenesis
should create a swath of 3-5 inches of rain.

The exact timing and location of this swath remains uncertain, but
there is good model agreement that it could be somewhere in the
Upper Wabash Valley Tuesday night. Will continue to monitor forecast
trends in the track for a potential Flood Watch if models remain
consistent. In addition to areal flooding, river flooding would also
be a concern on the higher end QPF scenario with MMEFs ensembles
showing minor flooding being likely in that higher end scenario.

Tight pressure gradients should also allow for wind gusts to 25-35
mph. The system will be fairly progressive and exit central Indiana
by late Wednesday with fairly benign weather for the latter portions
of the week into the weekend.  There could be some lingering light
showers on the backend, but otherwise expect near to slightly below
normal temperatures for Thursday with a gradual warm up back to near
90 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Impacts:

- Brief fog possible at outlying terminals until 13Z
- Otherwise VFR for much of the period.

Discussion:

Brief MVFR Fog at BMG will quickly burn off this morning as heating
and mixing resumes. Overall there is little change from the previous
TAF issuance. Clear skies are expected to start the day as high
pressure centered over Indiana and Ohio will remain in control.

Return flow will develop later today as the center of the high
shifts east. Expect light S/SW winds during the afternoon with
diurnal VFR cu developing again. Overall, ongoing TAF`s handle this
well.

As CU is lost tonight with sunset, mostly clear skies and VFR
conditions are expected to continue.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Puma