371
FXUS63 KILX 192319
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
619 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and dry weather continues through the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return Monday with periodic chances
  continuing through at least midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Regional visible satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a
blanket of fair weather cumulus over a good portion of the Midwest
states with a cluster of thunderstorms over the north-central
Plains. Upper analysis shows upper ridging over the western CONUS
with northwest flow/troughing over the eastern half. Surface
ridging here locally will keep things and dry through the weekend
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the middle 50s
to low 60s.

A shortwave trough presently located over the northern Plains will
slide southeast toward the middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday,
bringing an increase in high clouds for the weekend. Dry air in the
low to mid-levels should prevent any precipitation from entering the
forecast area, with better chances remaining just west of here.
Upper flow will change little going into the new week as we remain
gridlocked under somewhat of an omega blocking pattern. Upper
troughing gradually deepens by early next week as the aforementioned
shortwave slowly rounds the base of the trough. Moisture will
increase in the low to mid-levels as a surface low and stationary
front lay out near the Ohio River Valley. Bits of energy sliding
along the front will bring the return of precipitation as early as
Monday, with periodic chances possible through at least midweek.
Another upper shortwave will dive into the Great Lakes Region by mid
to late next week and work to gradually kick the stationary boundary
further east.

Outlooks created by the Climate Prediction Center keep temperatures
near or slightly below normal through next weekend with near to
slightly above normal precipitation chances.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions the next 24 hours, with mainly scattered clouds
around 5,000 feet. Winds remain around 5 knots or less, primarily
out of the northeast.

Geelhart

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$