![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
969 FXUS63 KILX 202022 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 322 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler than normal temperatures continue through the new week. - Low-end precipitation chances (20-30%) return Monday and Tuesday with somewhat better chances (30-50%) by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 500 mb analysis shows a deep upper low slowly working across northern Quebec with a cut off low/split flow regime over the Midwest states. At the surface, broad high pressure is in place keeping conditions dry and cool. A few subtle bits of energy rotating through the Midwest has sparked the development of showers mainly west of the Mississippi River this afternoon, with scattered to broken cirrus further east in Illinois atop fair weather cumulus. The upper trough will begin to pivot eastward on Sunday, increasing our mid-level moisture and thickening cloud cover. Scattered afternoon shower activity will near closer to central Illinois, but dry air in the low-levels should prevent much of this from reaching the ground. Dewpoints will continue to climb into the middle to upper 60s by the start of the new week as the upper trough axis sets up overhead/just east of here. A few weak shortwaves moving through Monday and Tuesday may generate isolated showers/storms especially in the afternoon, but better chances hold off until midweek when a slightly stronger shortwave drops through the Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front into the area. Overall weak flow and jet dynamics will keep the severe threat at bay as this system/front move through. Canadian surface ridging slides southeast behind the front for the end of the week, leading to another period of cooler and dry weather going into next weekend. Flow aloft looks to turn southwesterly by late next weekend into the following week, which would support the return of more seasonable temperatures and perhaps occasional precipitation chances. NMA && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL airports through 18Z/1 pm Sunday. Scattered to broken cumulus clouds with bases of 4-6k ft along with some passing cirrus clouds around 20-25k ft will occur into early evening. Mid clouds will increase across the area during tonight and continue into Sunday, as more cumulus clouds with bases of 3.5-5k ft develop after 15Z/10 am Sunday. Nearby weak 1020 mb high pressure near the IA/IL border to keep winds light next 24 hours, primarily out of the NE direction. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$