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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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024 FXUS63 KILX 041720 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for the next several days. Normals for the first week of July are in the upper 80s for central and southeaster Illinois. - Periods of showers and thunderstorms today. 60-80% POPs south of I-74 this morning. A dry period this afternoon and evening, with the next round coming in after 10pm (40-60% chance). - A mostly dry weekend ahead. The next potential for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance) into the new week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Shortwave trough is lifting across central Illinois this hour with the back edge of the main precip shield starting to work across the lower Illinois River Valley with precip expected to end across most of central Illinois by early to mid afternoon. Attention will turn northwest to the next shortwave/closed upper low digging across the Upper Midwest, though expect this will not begin to impact portions of central Illinois until late this evening (close to midnight). Deubelbeiss && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Happy Independence Day! Comfortable temperatures settle in today behind the departing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 80s. More rain chances are on the books for today. The positive part of it is that not the entire day will be rainy. In fact, the dry part of the day for central and southeastern Illinois is during the afternoon into the evening hours, when celebrations are taking place. This morning, there is a 60-80% chance of showers and thunderstorms primarily for areas south of I-74. POPs significantly drop for the afternoon and early evening (20-40%). The second round of precipitation today comes around 10pm tonight, when POPs rebound to 40-60%. There are PWATS near 1.5 inches for today. QPF amounts aren`t insane, with trace to 0.2 inches north of I-72 and 0.5 to 1.3 inches south of I-72. The highest totals today are more likely to occur south of I-70. However, the 00z HREF shows only a 10% chance of greater than an inch south of I-70 and 50-60% chance of greater than 0.10 inches forecast area wide. After today, ridging builds over the Midwest, keeping temperatures slightly below normal for the extended period. CPC has us in a near to leaning below normal temperature outlook for the next 6-10 days. Normals for the first week of July are in the upper 80s for central and southeaster Illinois. HIghs through the extended are in the low to mid 80s. Lows are expected range in the 60s. Rain chances return Sunday afternoon into Monday as a weak disturbance passes through. The highest chances occur during the day Monday with 40-50% POPs. Stay safe this 4th of July! Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Showers will taper off across central Illinois in the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into Indiana early this afternoon. Conditions should remain VFR the rest of today, but the I-72 corridor may briefly see MVFR at times over the next few hours. Additional showers and storms are possible overnight, but favored to stay south of the terminals. Light winds in place this afternoon will set up out of the south this evening and tonight followed by northwest Friday morning. Expect gusts around 20 kt to develop mid to late Friday morning. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$