Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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783 FXUS61 KILN 110142 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 942 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate away from the region tonight, with seasonably mild conditions returning to the area. Although there will be a chance for a stray shower or storm Thursday into the weekend, most spots may stay dry. Warmer and more humid air will return to the region toward early next week, but that will coincide with greater chances for more widespread storm chances again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Evening update... No major changes to the overall forecast picture with satellite data showing cloud cover gradually clearing from west to east. Surface observations are also showing winds decreasing this evening as the low pressure pulls away. High pressure is nudging in from the west, supporting continued calm conditions overnight. The only change to the forecast was to add mention of patchy fog. This will be more likely to occur within river valleys and across locations that have received rain over the last couple of days (eastern Indiana and western Ohio). Previous discussion... The remnants of Beryl have transitioned to a ~1003mb extratropical low that is progressing to the E through the nrn OH Vly and beginning to pull away from the local area. Within this broad/strong cyclonic flow, shallow yet sufficient moisture has led to patches of light SHRA/sprinkles/drizzle that continue to pivot around the low center, providing on-and-off very light RA to many spots near/N of the OH Rvr thus far today. This activity will begin to shift off to the E, with a few lingering SHRA back on the wrn fringes of the cloud shield (stretching from EC IN through the Tri-State into N KY) where some sunshine is aiding in just enough instby to allow for additional ISO SHRA to develop. A few very light SHRA and sprinkles may continue in these areas into early evening. The main story for today has been the unseasonably breezy/gusty conditions, owing to a relatively tight pressure gradient positioned across the area. SW winds of 20-25 MPH, with gusts 35-40 MPH, should begin to taper off late afternoon into early afternoon, with winds quickly subsiding after sunset. Extensive cloud cover remains draped across the area, although there are a few breaks within the stratocu deck beginning to emerge in the SW third of the ILN FA. These breaks should continue to expand and creep to the E into early evening, allowing for cloudy skies to trend partly sunny for most of the area by sunset. Temps will dip from the lower/mid 70s this afternoon to the lower/mid 60s by daybreak Thursday. There may be some patchy FG, especially in area river valleys and in locales where it is able to clear completely late tonight. However, did not yet have confidence to add to the fcst. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Although sfc high pressure will attempt to build into the region tonight into early Thursday, it will be edged out by the approach of a weak S/W pivoting to the ESE into the OH Vly by daybreak Thursday. This feature, while quite weak, will provide enough forcing amidst a still-amply-saturated environment to initiate a few SHRA that may find their way into far W/NW parts of the ILN FA by the afternoon. This disorganized activity, which is sprouting now upstream off to our NW, will slowly drift to the SE closer to the local area by early Thursday afternoon, so have added a slight chance PoPs in EC IN, WC OH, and parts of the Tri-State to account for this potential. Even with this being said, most locales will remain dry through the short term period, with the best potential for a few rogue SHRA near/W of I-75. Temps rebound into the lower/mid 80s before dipping into the mid/upper 60s Thursday night with slightly more humid air attempting to move back into the area from the W through the short term period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday ahead of a disturbance pushing across the Great Lakes. Mainly dry weather is expected for Saturday under high pressure. Additional weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass may trigger a few storms Sunday through Tuesday. A greater threat for showers and storms may exist on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to be the focus for convective development. Temperatures remaining quite warm will start with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Friday. Readings will rise to the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday and Sunday, then to the low and mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. Some locations could see apparent temps around 100. A retreat to the low 80s to low 90s is indicated for Wednesday as the cold front moves in. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Lingering cloud cover is gradually clearing from west to east this evening. Most locations are observing VFR conditions with continued improvement expected over the next few hours. Wind gusts are also beginning to decrease and become less frequent. Have kept wind gusts around 20-25 knots mentioned for the next few hours. Overnight, mostly clear skies are forecast as surface high pressure builds in from the west, replacing the cloudy/breezy conditions observed today. Winds will become light and variable through 12Z. High pressure supplies much lower winds speeds with winds generally around 5 knots and from the north or northwest. Expect cloud to develop during the afternoon with continued VFR conditions. A weak disturbance will initiate showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms across Indiana so VC mention was added starting at 20Z for DAY/CVG/LUK as this activity slowly drifts eastward toward the end of the TAF period. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC/McGinnis SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...McGinnis