455
FXUS61 KILN 170014
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
814 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move across the area
tonight and Wednesday. After the passage of a cold front on
Wednesday, drier and cooler conditions will move into the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A few showers and thunderstorms have started to pop up over
portions of southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Heat and
instability should allow for additional scattered thunderstorms
across the rest of the CWA, any of which could produce locally
gusty winds, however latest indications are that the more
widespread convection will occur after dark and into the
overnight hours. This would be instigated by a disturbance
across southern Illinois. The southern CWA is the most likely
area to be affected by this, and there is a risk for heavy
rainfall and localized flooding with this activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning, especially across southern and eastern
portions of the CWA. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will
continue to be a threat from these storms. The chance of storms
will persist until a cold front crosses the CWA. So will
continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across much
of the CWA until the front moves southeast during the late
afternoon and evening. Drier air will start to move in behind
the front, especially for Wednesday night.

High temperatures Wednesday are expected to be in the lower to
mid 80s, with low temperatures ranging from the upper 50s north
to lower 60s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A mid level trough axis will be digging east through the remainder
of the Great Lakes, southeast Canada, and New England on Thursday.
Behind this trough, surface high pressure will be building southeast
into the region, bringing drier and cooler air. Highs will range
from 75 to 80. For Thursday night, the surface high will settle into
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mostly clear skies and light winds
will result in lows in the 50s.

Under mid level confluence, surface high pressure will continue to
extend over the area Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will modify
through this period with them trending closer to near normal by
Sunday.

As we head into the first part of next week, models agree that mid
level troughing will develop across the central Plains into the
middle Mississippi River Valley. This location, combined with the
development of mid level ridging off the mid Atlantic and southeast
U.S. coast, will increase moisture into the region as higher
dewpoints and pwats pump northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Thus,
shower and thunderstorm chances will increase during this period. It
will be seasonably warm and humid with highs in the 80s and lows in
the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A few showers/thunderstorms have developed mainly across the
north where moderate instability exists. With a lack of
significant forcing any additional development thru the evening
is expected to be isold/scattered in coverage.

A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) moving from southern IL
into southern IN may provide forcing overnight to offer an
increase in convective coverage across the southern TAF sites
as it tracks east thru the Ohio Valley. Have handled this threat
with a VCTS since a good deal of uncertainty exists.

MVFR ceilings develop across all TAF sites late tonight into
Wednesday morning. A continued threat for scattered
thunderstorms will continue Wednesday until the front pushes
thru from northwest to southeast in the mid afternoon thru late
day. Clouds improve to VFR by afternoon and scatter out
Wednesday evening as drier air advects into the region n
northwest to north winds.


OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ073-074-077>082-
     088.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for INZ073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Hickman
AVIATION...AR