Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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363 FXUS61 KILN 050201 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1001 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Continue to see a weak boundary traversing our CWA causing mostly showers. The boundary will shift off to the east shortly after midnight leaving another quiet night. Guidance is signaling for low cloud and patchy fog development late, so will continue to keep clouds in the forecast through the night. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day with the passage of the front moving through during the evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the day. As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening, diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing, development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto River Valley region. Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the overnight period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday. Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of the central part of the country and cross the region late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal temperatures and another generally dry period. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Focus in the TAF period includes an initial period of breezy showers early in the period (and perhaps a storm), followed by another bout of low stratus/fog late tonight into early Friday morning. The latest HRRR has storm tops increasing a bit over the next two hours as our developing line of showers shifts east toward central Ohio. This could bring a better chance of thunder into the TAFs for ILN and the Columbus terminals... though can`t rule it out at DAY and CVG/LUK either. Have leaned toward this morning`s conditions (persistence) as far as the low stratus late tonight. Guidance again shows more of an MVFR base... however, in this very moist environment believe formation will initially be below 1,000 feet AGL before lifting some with heating. Heading into Friday afternoon, a disturbance will bring another good chance of showers to the terminals. Thunder will be possible, which will be introduced in future updates as confidence improves. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...