710
FXUS61 KILN 202000
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will
weaken on Sunday. More humid conditions will develop back into
the region next week in addition to the return of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Surface high pressure will extend across the lower Great Lakes
tonight. Weak embedded mid level disturbances in the
west/southwest flow aloft will bring an increase in mid and high
clouds. It will be a little warmer with lows in the lower to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will weaken across the Great Lakes on
Sunday. Meanwhile, mid level troughing will dig ever so slowly
to the east/southeast into the middle Mississippi River Valley.
This will help nudge deeper moisture a little farther north, at
least to the Ohio River. Thus, there will be a low chance of a
shower or storms across our far southern zones. Otherwise, skies
will range from partly to mostly cloudy. Highs will be similar
to today, mainly in the lower to mid 80s.

For Sunday night, deeper moisture will continue to creep
farther north. Some embedded s/wv energy rippling through the
mean mid level trough will combine with the deeper moisture to
bring at least a chance of showers and storms to the southern
half of the CWFA. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Shortwave energy rotating northeast into the region ahead of a
weakening upper low pressure center is expected to initiate
showers and a few thunderstorms, most notably over northern
Kentucky and closer to the Ohio River in Ohio and Indiana.

These showers will wane overnight and emerge once again on
Tuesday, concentrated in the southeast of our CWA, with a
similar situation of energy rotating ahead of an upper trough of
low pressure. The proximity of the trough axis gets closer, and
the chances of precipitation cannot be ruled out beyond this
time, though Thursday night looks to be dry, as does Friday
night and most of Saturday.

Temperatures will be fairly consistent with climatological
normals for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist.

High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will
weaken on Sunday.

Weak embedded mid level disturbances in the west/southwest flow
aloft will bring an increase in mid and high level clouds
tonight into Sunday. These clouds will be accompanied by diurnal
cumulus clouds. Deeper moisture and weak lift will remain south
of the Ohio River. Thus, dry conditions are forecast. Surface
winds will remain light from the north and northeast around 5
knots.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday through Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...Hickman