Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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445 FXUS61 KILN 171346 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 946 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move through today. Cooler and drier conditions will then move into the area for several days. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... Current satellite and mosaic radar loops show tight/compact MCV over Kentucky about to cross into West Virginia. Rain associated with this system has rapidly dissipated this morning so this morning`s update was focused on near term rain chances (lowering) as satellite data indicates we have a little time before showers/storms re-initiate with the cold frontal / upper trough passage later this morning and primarily this afternoon. Boundary layer flow will be veering with time this morning due to the positive tilt nature of the mid and upper trough, but enough height falls impinging on a 1.75-2.00" PWAT ribbon over the southeast half of the ILN forecast area, should be enough to allow scattered showers and storms to increase in coverage once the convective temps (around 80F) are breached and low level forcing from the front arrives. 17.12Z KILN sounding is rather moist, with weak mid lapse rates aloft, and weak effective shear. However, flow aloft will increase a bit as the trough approaches and moves through, so a localized gusty storm can`t be ruled out at the peak of the heating cycle...most likely in central Ohio but perhaps further southwest along and east of I-71 into south- central Ohio or northeast Kentucky. Modest forecast DCAPE (owing to rather moist troposphere and lapse rates) should keep threat quite limited. Probably one of those days when looking at the radar in an instantaneous fashion would suggest a 20-40% PoP would be warranted, but over time should be rather good coverage in a bulk sense considering increasing flow aloft, especially southeast 2/3 of the forecast area, so maintained 60-70% rain chances in the peak of the afternoon especially along and southeast of I-71. Should see a rather quick decrease in shower/storm coverage by mid-evening owing to drying and front shifting out of the area. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Precipitation will taper off during the first half of the night tonight as the cold front pushes east of the area. Cooler and drier conditions will then move into the area. With low temperatures tonight, some area locations will drop down into the 50s, while others will be in the 60s. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 70s to around 80 degrees. With CAA on Thursday, expect cu to develop. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will slide slowly east across the southern Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley through the weekend. This will lead to dry conditions and slightly moderating temperatures. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, increasing to highs in the low to mid 80s by Sunday. Mid level troughing over the central US will shift slowly east through early next week. As it does the surface high will weaken across our area as moisture begins to increase from the the south. This will result in increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms from south to north across the area Monday into Tuesday. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be mainly in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There will be some isolated to scattered shower activity around this morning. Handled this with a vcsh and shra mention. There are some MVFR cigs that will continue to move into portions of the region for a few hours this morning. A cold front will approach and then move through today. This will allow for showers and thunderstorms at times until the passage of this feature. There will also be a wind shift with the front. OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected at this time. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...