991
FXUS61 KILN 121731
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm and humid weather will continue through the weekend
and early next week under weak high pressure, with afternoon
thunderstorms possible each day. A better chance for showers
and thunderstorms will a accompany a cold front expected to push
through during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weather is dry to start under high pressure and a weakly forced
environment. There may be few showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon from a humid and unstable airmass enhanced by a mid
level disturbance. These loosely organized convective elements
should remain under severe limits while producing brief
downpours. Temperatures will be quite warm with highs ranging
from the mid 80s northwest to the low 90s southeast

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Dry weather is likely tonight once isolated convection
dissipates this evening with loss of daytime heating. Went close
to the blend for temperatures with lows in the 60s tonight and
high temperatures on Saturday in the middle 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
West to northwest flow will continue aloft through early next week
as southwest flow persists in  the low levels. This will lead to an
increase in temperatures and moisture Sunday through Tuesday. Mid
level energy will drop down into the Great Lakes through mid week,
helping to push a cold front southeast across the Ohio Valley
through the end of the long term period. A mid level short wave will
push east across the region Sunday into Sunday night, leading to a
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Increasing instabilities
Monday and Tuesday will lead to at least some lower end chances for
diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms each day. While there
are some timing differences with the front, it will eventually lead
to some better chances for showers and thunderstorms, most likely
Tuesday night and/or into the day on Wednesday.

In the southwest flow, warm temperatures are expected through the
first part of next week with daytime highs in the upper 80s to mid
90s for Sunday through Tuesday. This will combine with dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low/mid 70s to produce heat indices to around 100
degrees or so Sunday through Tuesday afternoons. Some cooler
temperatures will then move in behind the front through mid to late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is forecast to start the TAF period at most sites. VCTS
will impact CVG LUK DAY and ILN this afternoon until dissipating
by evening. Put TSRA with MVFR at CVG where such conditions may
be imminent. Will amend to add TSRA at other sites if direct
impacts are expected. For tonight, under humid and calm
conditions, BR is forecast to develop and reduce visibility at
CVG LUK DAY and ILN. A return to VFR along with dry weather is
anticipated for Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Coniglio