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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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992 FXUS61 KILN 140846 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 446 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Patchy fog will be possible this morning. High clouds have started to move in from a complex of storms northwest of the region. There is some uncertainty with convective activity across the region today. Current thinking is that the activity this morning will start to decrease and stay across northern or north of the region. There will then be the potential for additional development this afternoon as a weak disturbance moves through. There is quite a bit of instability this afternoon as well. Storms that develop this afternoon and into the early evening hours will have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts. Since there is greater potential for storm development across northern portions of the region these areas will be slightly cooler than southern portions of the area. Have a special weather statement out for southwestern portions of the region today to account for the potential for heat index values near 100. There is too much convective uncertainty at this time to go with an advisory, however highlight the heat with the HWO and the SPS. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... While models are showing variable solutions for convective activity during this time, in general have a decreasing trend in convection at the start of the short term. There will then be the potential for additional development of storms overnight as well. Heading into the day on Monday, several models are showing some convective activity especially across northern portions of the region. There will be the potential for severe weather across primarily northern portions of the region for Monday. It is this chance of convective activity that the decision was to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday. There is the potential for a large portion of the region to hit heat advisory criteria on Monday, however given uncertainty in convection decided to hold off on issuing an advisory until there is more agreement in thunderstorm timing and placement. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The cold front will approach from the northwest through the day on Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 80s in the northwest to the mid 90s across our southeast with heat indices of 100 degrees or so possible in the afternoon. As we destabilize through the day and the front approaches, expect an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, especially across our northwest. There are still some timing differences with the front, but it should slowly sag southeast across our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. With good moisture advection ahead of the front, expect fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to push slowly south across our area. PWS will climb up in excess of 2 inches along and ahead of the front and with some training possible, there will be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns. Deep layer shear will also slowly increase along and ahead of the front so a few strong to severe storms will also be possible with damaging wind the primary threat. A drier and cooler airmass will settle in behind the front through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures will moderate a bit heading into the weekend with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overnight there will just be some high clouds at times across the TAF sites. Some of the area TAF sites will have some vsby reductions with fog. Cu will develop on Sunday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with convective timing, however generally focused on the afternoon and early evening hours given upper level disturbance and instability. Handled this with a vcts for now until confidence increases. Winds will pick up during the day. Cannot rule out isolated gusts, however confidence was not high enough to include at this time. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday night through Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...