803
FXUS61 KILN 150847
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
447 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Wednesday. Warm temperatures will
also be in place until the passage of the cold front. Drier and
cooler conditions are expected for the second half of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few showers and sprinkles across central Ohio continue to
fall out of a mid deck of clouds. Further to the west a MCS
continues to move across Indiana. The strength of this feature
has decreased and expect it continue to decrease as it moves
towards the region. This feature will then lay out a boundary
that will be the focus area for additional thunderstorm
development this afternoon and into the early evening hours. The
greatest chance for larger coverage of thunderstorms this
afternoon is across central Ohio. There will be the potential
that thunderstorms that develop today will produce damaging
wind gusts and heavy rain. Will highlight this risk in the HWO.
Also will highlight the heat potential for today. Prior to
thunderstorm development there will be some heat index values in
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Issued a special weather
statement as well to account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
After the thunderstorms across central Ohio begin to dissipate
and move out of the region there will be a decrease in
precipitation across the region. This will be short lived as
another wave will start to bring an increase in precipitation
chances later in the overnight hours towards Tuesday morning.

During the day on Tuesday, a boundary will lay out across the
region allowing for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.
While thunderstorm damaging wind gusts will be a concern, the
greater concern starts to shift towards flash flooding concerns
with heavy rainfall. Moisture transport vectors show some
concerning signals with some areas receiving several hours of
heavy rain, beginning towards the end of the short term. Added
heavy rain mention to the forecast and will continue to mention
flooding potential in the HWO.

Heat will again be a concern on Tuesday, however this will be
heavily convective dependent.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will move southeast across our area Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Good moisture transport will continue into
Tuesday night ahead of the front with PWs increasing into the 2 to
2.5 inch range. With the flow becoming more parallel to the front,
some training storms will be possible with heavy downpours and
localized flooding possible Tuesday night, possibly lingering into
Wednesday morning across our south. As the front moves south of the
area later Wednesday, we will see a decreasing chance of pcpn from
the northwest through the rest of the day.

High pressure and a drier, less warm airmass will settle into the
Ohio Valley through the end of the work week. Highs Wednesday
through Friday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures
will begin to slowly moderate through the weekend but we should
remain mostly dry. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid clouds are currently working across the TAF sites. There are
some returns showing up on radar, however since precipitation is
falling from a mid deck, anything that does reach the surface is
expected to be light. Due to this, have dry conditions starting
out the TAF period.

The showers and thunderstorms over northwest Indiana are
expected to dissipate as they try to move into the region. Just
have a vcsh mention in at the western TAF sites KDAY, KCVG, and
KLUK late in the overnight and into the early daytime morning
hours before dissipating. This is then expected to lay out a
boundary for additional convective development during the
afternoon and early evening hours. The focus of this activity
will be more around KDAY, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK. Timed in tempo
tsra during the time period of greatest confidence. Winds will
also pick up today and gust around 20 to 25 knots at times.
Higher gusts will be possible with any thunderstorm activity.
These showers and storms will start to move out of the region
towards the end of the TAF period. There will be the potential
for some additional precipitation late in the longer KCVG TAF
and handled this with just a vcsh for now.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...